晨报｜交易事实，而非预期

Group 1 - The core principle in response to trade uncertainties is to focus on "trading facts rather than expectations," indicating that risk assets have returned to their original prices amid the tariff war [1] - A-shares are expected to continue showing characteristics of risk preference recovery and thematic rotation, with a focus on low institutional holdings and thematic trading opportunities [1] - Three major trends are emphasized: the unwavering trend of enhancing China's independent technological capabilities, the European Union's reconstruction of autonomous defense and energy infrastructure, and the necessity for China to accelerate the "dual circulation" strategy to stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is evaluating the possibility of restarting trade negotiations with the U.S., indicating a softening stance compared to previous positions [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated to 7.21, the highest in over five months, driven by expectations of improved Sino-U.S. relations [2] - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel numbers reached new highs, with significant growth in inbound travel, county tourism, and long-distance travel [2] Group 3 - The analysis of tariff burden sharing reveals that industries with strong competitive advantages, such as textiles and telecommunications, are likely to bear less tariff burden, while weaker industries like pharmaceuticals may face higher burdens [3][4] - The U.S. has a high import dependency on certain Chinese products, which influences the tariff negotiation dynamics [4] Group 4 - The EU's economic recovery is complicated by U.S. tariff policies, with expectations that the negative impact of tariffs will manifest before the positive effects of fiscal expansion [5] - The global manufacturing PMI for April 2025 shows a slight decline, indicating pressures from tariffs and economic uncertainties [6] Group 5 - The banking sector experienced negative revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025, but there are expectations for gradual recovery in subsequent quarters due to adjustments in interest rates and market conditions [8] - The insurance sector reported better-than-expected Q1 results, indicating a potential for a slow bull market trajectory [17] Group 6 - The electronic industry showed normal growth despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with strong performance in sectors like computing power and automotive components [10] - Fund allocation in the electronic sector has increased, particularly in semiconductors, reflecting a positive outlook amid trade policy uncertainties [10][11] Group 7 - The tourism market during the May Day holiday showed robust demand, with significant increases in travel numbers and a positive outlook for the service sector [14] - The water price reform in Guangzhou is expected to alleviate cost pressures for water supply companies, potentially leading to improved industry returns [15]