尊敬的客户，您好！ "对话管理人"系列会议由中信证券研究部量化与配置组推出，旨在立足于中信证券研究，围绕市场焦点 话题，对话专业的管理人，为投资人和财富管理机构提供最新的投资工具与投资观点。 在全球地缘政治格局动荡加剧、国际货币体系不断变迁的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资产，价格中枢持 续上移，而黄金股作为金价弹性的放大器，其投资价值备受关注。当前，黄金板块展现出良好的利润释 放信号，盈利韧性凸显，黄金股ETF作为高效配置工具，为投资者提供了布局黄金产业链的便捷通道。 值此时点，我们邀请到了永赢基金黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇先生，共同探讨在全球变局之下，黄金股 相关投资工具与投资方法。 5月8日周四下午15:30 特邀嘉宾：刘庭宇 永赢基金 基金经理 主持人：王博隆 ETF策略及主题量化分析师 15:30-16:15 管理人访谈：世界变局下的黄金股ETF投资 16:15-16:30 管理人Q&A 议程 世界变局下的黄金股ETF投资 信研讲堂·对话管理人（第一期） 2025年5月8日15:30 进门财经+263线上 特别提示： 投研签约白名单客户可直接参会；如不能确认是否具备参会资格，可直接联系会议助理或由 客户经 ...

Core Insights - The article focuses on the analysis of China's May Holiday consumption data and macroeconomic outlook, highlighting trends and potential implications for the economy [1] Consumption Data Analysis - The May Holiday period saw a significant increase in consumer spending, indicating a recovery in the retail sector post-pandemic [1] - Specific sectors such as travel, dining, and entertainment experienced notable growth, with travel-related spending rising by approximately 30% compared to the previous year [1] - The overall consumption growth during this period is seen as a positive sign for the Chinese economy, suggesting increased consumer confidence [1] Macro Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued recovery driven by consumer spending [1] - Analysts predict that the government may implement further stimulus measures to sustain economic momentum, particularly in the face of global economic uncertainties [1] - The potential for inflationary pressures is acknowledged, but the overall sentiment leans towards a stable economic environment in the near term [1]

文 ｜ 童成墩 薛姣 田良 陆昊 林永健 一季报总体超预期，有三个验证：新业务价值高增长验证了头部公司正受益市场洗牌，部分头部公 司分红险转型成效验证了公司从类自营走向类资管商业模式的可行性，核心偿付能力充足率的大幅 改善验证了头部公司过去五年拉长资产久期积累了大量浮盈。我们重申保险板块强于大市的判断 上市保险公司均有配置价值。 ▍ 我们认为保险板块处于长期慢牛的起点。 根据我们外发的《 非银行金融行业保险动态跟踪—保险股：开启慢牛之路 》（2 0 2 5 - 0 3 - 1 5）， 我们认为保险板块处于长期慢牛的起点。主要逻辑包括：1）市场大幅洗牌，银保和经纪渠道份 额在向头部公司集中；2）市场处于单边降息周期走向低利率波动的拐点上，保险产品需求正逐 步从传统险转向分红险；3）监管持续推进费用"报行合一"、压降保单预定利率，幸存者公司有 望通过积累低手续费、低负债成本实现新一轮发展。 ▍ 从2 0 2 5年一季报情况来看，行业表现基本上与以上判断一致。 新业务价值普遍快速增速，超出市场预期。 2 0 2 5年以来，行业淡化开门红色彩，部分公司一季 度代理人渠道新单保费下降，市场对新业务价值预期偏悲观，但一季 ...

文 ｜ 杨泽原 丁奇 潘儒琛 马庆刘 孙竟耀 朱珏琦 曲松 2 0 2 4年计算机行业整体收入实现稳健增长，归母净利润和扣非净利润承压。各板块业绩有所分 化，算力芯片、服务器、AI等方向表现优异。2 0 2 5Q1，行业整体营收保持稳步增长，盈利能力大 幅改善，拐点有望逐步显现。建议把握"AI主线"机遇，重点看好AI Ag e n t及算力主线方向，如管 理/办公软件、教育IT、算力芯片、服务器、云厂商等板块；同时建议兼顾信创、低空经济、机器 人等结构性机遇，如工业软件、基础软件等板块。 ▍ 2 0 2 4行业业绩回顾：整体收入稳健增长，归母净利润和扣非净利润承压。 2 0 2 4年计算机行业整体实现营收1 7 9 9 4 . 7 7亿元，同比增长11 . 9 8%，增速较上年提升1 2 . 0 3 p c ts， 主要受浪潮信息、软通动力等收入体量较大的公司增长较快，带来行业收入的稳步增长。归母净 利润3 1 4 . 1 9亿元，同比下滑3 0 . 1 7%，扣非净利润2 0 6 . 7 6亿元，同比下滑3 3 . 5 6%，2 0 2 4年计算机 行业利润端承压较大。从个股增速中位数来看，2 0 2 4年 ...

文 ｜ 祖国鹏 2 0 2 4年，受煤价下行以及区域性安监因素影响，煤炭板块盈利整体显著下滑，板块经营性现金流 以及自由现金流也有一定收缩，但煤炭企业在业绩下行的背景下整体分红比例有所提升，显示龙头 公司积极回报投资者的态度。2 0 2 5Q1，煤价下行继续拖累板块业绩表现。展望全年，我们认为煤 价底部依然有支撑，需求端的压力也已阶段性定价，若后续煤价企稳回暖，长期具备"红利低波"属 性的公司仍然值得青睐。 水产量持续增长有所改善，我们预计价格短期或走出低谷。在煤价逐步见底的预期下，行业悲观 情绪或有效缓解。 ▍ 风险因素： ▍ 2 0 2 4年板块整体净利润同比下滑1 8%。 2 0 2 4年板块上市公司煤炭产量合计1 2 . 3 6亿吨，同比增长0 . 4 9%，低于全国原煤产量增速。合计 营业收入/成本分别同比变动- 4 . 6 4%/- 0 . 11%，毛利率2 3 . 6 2%（同比- 4 . 6 6 p c ts）。合计净利润为 1 4 6 0 . 2 3亿元，同比- 1 8 . 2 9%，盈利下降原因主要是2 0 2 4年以来煤价的下降以及煤炭销量的减 少。 ▍ 2 0 2 4年上市煤企整体法现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the potential impact of tariffs on various industries in China and the U.S., emphasizing the importance of the tariff burden distribution between Chinese and American companies on profitability. It evaluates industry competitiveness and bilateral trade dependence to assess how tariffs may be shared across different sectors [1][20]. Industry Competitiveness - China's telecommunications equipment, consumer electronics, and textile products exhibit strong competitiveness, with a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) greater than 2 as of 2023. In contrast, primary products and chemicals show lower RCAs below 0.8 [2][3]. - The international market share for China's telecommunications equipment, consumer electronics, and textile products is also high, exceeding 30%, while primary and pharmaceutical products have market shares below 10% [3]. - The comprehensive competitiveness index for textiles, telecommunications equipment, electronic data processing, and apparel ranks high at 14, 14, 13, and 13 respectively, while chemicals, agriculture, food, pharmaceuticals, and mineral fuels rank lower at 4-6 [11][13]. Trade Dependence - The U.S. has a high import dependence on miscellaneous products, machinery, and intermediate raw materials from China, with import dependence rates of 26.1%, 16.0%, and 16.0% respectively for 2024, which are significantly higher than the overall dependence [14]. - China's export exposure to the U.S. in sectors like automobiles, chemicals, and non-ferrous metal products is relatively low, providing stronger bargaining power in tariff negotiations. Conversely, labor-intensive sectors have higher exposure, affecting their negotiation leverage [14][20]. Tariff Impact - Due to strong competitiveness and high U.S. import dependence, China's telecommunications equipment and consumer electronics are expected to bear less of the tariff burden, while pharmaceuticals may face a heavier burden due to weaker competitiveness and higher export exposure [20]. - Current tariff rates for industries such as leather, transportation equipment, and food are among the highest, indicating potential impacts on these sectors [20]. Political Factors - Political considerations, particularly related to national security and labor rights, are likely to influence U.S. imports from China, with expectations of reduced imports of telecommunications equipment, smart and connected vehicles, and textiles [27].

贾天楚｜中信证券 海外研究分析师 S1010524040002 海外研究｜基于重大风险事件视角下的黄金交易策略分析 近期市场对于黄金行情的持续性和价格未来表现存在分歧。从基本面视角看，当前关 税问题的解决还没有定论，股票市场整体仍呈现僵持的状态，因此判断其对黄金的利 好尚未完全结束。此外，市场对于未来可能发生的"类滞胀"环境下的"胀"的定价尚不 充分，综合上述关税、地缘、通胀、增长等几个角度看，黄金行情或许尚未结束。从 交易面上看，黄金交投规模以及热度并未达到历史"最拥挤"区间，资金仍有进一步加 仓的空间。从技术面上看，当前黄金整体呈现"单边上"行情并领跑大类资产，为避免 短时间小幅波动引发的阶段性操作失误的现象，"买入-持有"策略或相对更占优势。 而从交易策略角度出发，我们测算量价策略胜率高于通道策略，前者胜率基本都位于 50%-57%区间；其中，5日和20日均线策略胜率最高；而均线策略一旦上升至30日则 会大大降低胜率。 风险因素：中美关系走向超于市场预期；美联储货币政策超预期；美国经济韧性超预 期；特朗普贸易政策及关税摩擦超预期；模型测算及情景假设偏差；全球关税摩擦引 发的出口波动超预期；两党关于财税等 ...

文 ｜ 贾天楚 崔嵘 李翀 韦昕澄 五一假期期间OPEC+超预期增产计划引发油市短时巨震，本次会议超预期的地方不只是产量超预期增加，而是 对于OPEC+自2 0 2 2年以来挺油价政策态度的转向和后续外交博弈的担忧。我们认为本次超预期增产主要与沙特 等主导国希望维持组织的纪律性以及将要到来的美沙外交活动相关。当前全球原油供需结构逐渐逆转并呈现"松 平衡"状态，若OPEC进一步增产则将逐渐呈现"供大于需"的现象，油市后续或仍存在压力。综合来看，在供给和 风险事件的扰动下，国际油价整体或仍偏弱震荡，若关税扰动下宏观经济读数趋弱的预期兑现则对油价形成新的 拖累。当前我们维持大宗商品市场表现黄金＞铜＞油的判断。 ▍ 事项： 2 0 2 5年5月3日，OPEC+宣布自愿额外减产的八个国家对之前的减产计划进行调整，引发油市巨震，布油下跌 1 . 5%并跌破6 0美元/桶关键点位，对此我们点评如下： ▍ 本次会议相较前次的主要变化： 第一，增产计划超预期。 在5月增产规模的基础上，6月进一步调整了此前的自愿减产计划，增加4 1 . 1万桶/日 的生产调整，相当于此前的增产配额时间表提前三个月。 第二，态度超预期。 一方面， ...

文 ｜ 明明 余经纬 秦楚媛 周昀锋 近期，人民币汇率的快速拉升或与美元指数偏弱运行、消息面驱动市场对于中美谈判预期的升温等 有关。后续来看，人民币汇率的扰动和支撑因素相对均衡，人民币汇率短期或围绕新中枢双向波 动，央行汇率政策更多侧重于纠偏单边预期。其中，压力主要来自美国对华加征关税对我国出口基 本面的冲击逐步凸显，并导致经常账户顺差有所收窄、以及直接投资和证券投资账户的波动，但对 于人民币汇率更为重要的是国内对冲政策的力度和中美经贸磋商的进度。支撑因素中，一是美国经 济数据持续走弱预期下，美元指数或偏弱运行，人民币汇率的被动贬值压力有所缓和；二是全球投 资者对于非美货币以及非美资产的需求边际抬升。 ▍ 近期人民币汇率走升更多在于外因驱动。 美国"对等关税"政策出台后，对于美国经济基本面承压和通胀粘性的担忧、特朗普政府政策的高 度不确定性等引发外国投资者对美元计价资产的信任程度下降，美元指数不涨反跌，4月累计下 跌4 . 3 7%。进入5月，新台币相对美元大幅走升、港元触发强方兑换保证成为全球汇市热点，侧面 反映出市场对于非美货币及资产的需求抬升初见端倪。5月2日，中国商务部表示正在评估与美国 启动贸易谈判 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of China's electricity market from a "single energy market" to a diversified market that includes "energy + capacity + ancillary services," driven by recent policy developments and market reforms [1][5]. Policy Developments - On April 29, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly released the "Basic Rules for the Electricity Ancillary Services Market," aiming to enhance the operational mechanisms of the ancillary services market and clarify the construction timeline for the electricity spot market [2][4]. - The NDRC and NEA outlined a roadmap for establishing a unified national electricity market system by early 2025, with a goal of basic completion by 2030 [3]. Market Structure and Transition - The electricity market is evolving towards a model that integrates energy, capacity, and ancillary services, with significant progress in the mid-to-long-term market and ongoing development of the electricity spot market [5][6]. - The ancillary services market is being refined to support the stable operation of the electricity spot market, with rules being established to facilitate their integration [4][6]. Investment Opportunities - The ongoing market reforms are expected to benefit various new entities, such as innovative energy storage solutions and virtual power plants, as well as sectors like electricity IT and inter-provincial transmission infrastructure [1][8]. - The potential revenue sources for energy storage projects are expanding, with expected increases in income from energy markets, ancillary services, and capacity markets as reforms progress [7]. Market Construction Timeline - The construction of the electricity spot market is accelerating, with plans for continuous operation in five regions by 2024, including Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Gansu, Shanxi, and Guangdong [7][9]. - The timeline for the transition to formal operation of the electricity spot market in various provinces has been outlined, with specific deadlines set for regions like Hubei and Zhejiang [3][9]. Conclusion - The article highlights the significant changes in China's electricity market structure and the implications for various stakeholders, indicating a clear trend towards a more integrated and market-driven approach to electricity trading and services [1][5][8].