宏观｜五一假期期间的经济线索

Group 1: Trade Relations and Currency Impact - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is evaluating the possibility of initiating trade negotiations with the U.S., indicating a softening stance compared to previous statements [2][3] - The offshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated to 7.21, the highest in over five months, driven by expectations of improved China-U.S. relations [3] - There is a potential for concentrated settlement of foreign exchange by Chinese exporters, which could further support RMB appreciation [3] Group 2: Tourism and Consumer Behavior - During the May Day holiday, the number of travelers reached a new high, with an average of 305 million people per day, reflecting a 5.8% increase year-on-year [4] - Despite high travel volumes, there is a trend of "quantity over price," with some regions experiencing slight declines in tourism spending [5] - Significant growth was observed in inbound tourism, county tourism, and long-distance travel, with inbound orders increasing by 130% year-on-year [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - The April manufacturing PMI in China showed a decline, indicating external demand pressures are greater than internal demand [6] - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1, primarily due to net export drag, while non-farm data remained stable, alleviating recession concerns [6] - Upcoming focus includes the Federal Reserve's May meeting and China's April import and export data [6]