中金：美国经济风险并未消退

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in Q1 2025, with real GDP declining at an annualized rate of -0.3%, marking the first shrinkage in nearly three years. Concerns over tariffs have led to a surge in imports, which negatively impacted GDP growth, while consumption and investment remained relatively stable. Looking ahead, the economy may face further pressure in Q2 due to increased tariffs, inventory depletion, and declining exports [1][3][5]. Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, real GDP fell short of market expectations, declining from a robust 2.4% in Q4 2024 to -0.3%. The surge in actual goods imports, which rose by 41.3% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, significantly detracted from GDP growth by 4.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, private domestic final sales increased slightly from 2.9% to 3.0%, indicating stable domestic demand prior to the tariff implementation [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment showed mixed results, with equipment investment rebounding significantly to a growth rate of 22.5%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to GDP. However, real estate and construction growth slowed, reflecting ongoing pressures from high interest rates. Personal consumption expenditure growth also declined from 4.0% to 1.8%, with durable goods consumption turning negative [4][5]. Future Economic Outlook - The second quarter is expected to face additional economic pressure as imports may slow down due to tariffs, potentially alleviating some of the negative impact from "import rushing." However, this could lead to greater disruptions in economic activity. Inventory depletion is anticipated to further suppress economic growth, while consumer spending may slow due to higher costs [5][6]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with April's non-farm payrolls adding 177,000 jobs, surpassing expectations. However, the labor market may face increased pressure from tariff-related uncertainties, which could dampen overall employment growth [6][7]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation risks remain elevated, with the core PCE price index rising from 2.6% to 3.5% in Q1 2025, moving further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The ongoing high tariffs and unresolved trade negotiations may exacerbate inflationary pressures, particularly affecting low-income consumers reliant on affordable goods [9][10]. - Given the current economic landscape, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the near term. The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to maintain a neutral to hawkish stance, as resilient GDP and employment data do not support rate cuts. Future rate decisions will depend on the evolution of tariff impacts and inflation trends [10][11].