5月政策或将全面发力,关注这两大方向!
摩尔投研精选·2025-05-06 10:44

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a strong start in May, with all three major indices rising over 1%, indicating increased market activity and investor interest [1][5] Group 1: Market Performance - After the May Day holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3,300-point mark, reaching a new high of 3,316 points for the year [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.34 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 166.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, reflecting enhanced liquidity and market engagement [1] - Various sectors saw significant gains, including controlled nuclear fusion stocks and robotics, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Group 2: Seasonal Trends - Historical data from 2010 to 2024 shows a pattern of "weak April, not poor May, and recovery in July" for A-shares, indicating a cyclical trend in market performance [2] - The average performance for May from 2010 to 2024 shows fluctuations, with some years experiencing declines while others saw gains, suggesting a complex seasonal behavior [2] Group 3: Policy and Economic Environment - The market is expected to benefit from a dual drive of policy and liquidity, with fiscal measures such as long-term bonds and accelerated equipment renewal policies being implemented [5] - Monetary policy expectations are shifting towards easing, with a return of the D0 0 7 interest rate to policy levels, creating a more favorable liquidity environment [5] Group 4: Sector Focus - The focus for May is on consumer and technology sectors, with an emphasis on domestic consumption and tech growth as key investment areas [7] - Consumer sectors, particularly food and beverage, are expected to benefit from easing cost pressures and recovering consumption scenarios, with retail and dining sales during the May Day holiday increasing by 6.3% year-on-year [7] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are highlighted as defensive investment choices, supported by policy initiatives and improved earnings, with Q1 profits growing by 18% year-on-year [7]