一轮上涨周期或开启 广发证券策略刘晨明认为，当前上证指数再次回到了40 00点附近的位置，展望后续1- 2个月， A股很可能迎来一段"天时地 利人和"的上涨机会。 天时：2月开始，春季躁动迎来胜率最高的阶段，以小盘指数为例，在春节到两会之间上涨概率为100%，在2月上涨概率为 87 .5%。 | 权1:母千春学, | | 中场的风格农扰 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数上深板序 | 元旦>春节 | 在节.>两会 | 两会期间 | 两会→波治局 | 改治局->4月底 | 12月 | 1月 | 2/1 | 3 H | | 中证500 | 50.0% | 93.8% | 43.8% | 50.0% | 25.0% | 43.8% | 43.8% | 87.5% | 31.3% | | 中法1000 | 37.5% | 93.8% | 43.8% | 43.8% | 18.8% | 31.3% | 31.3% | 87.5% | 37.5% | | III £2000 | 37.5% | ...

沪深股通今日合计成交2585 .63亿，其中寒武纪和宁德时代分居沪股通和深股通个股成交额首位。板块主力资金方面，文化传媒板块主 力资金净流入居首。ETF成交方面，影视ETF（1598 55）成交额环比增长449%。 龙虎榜方面，20CM二连板捷成股份遭一线游资激烈博弈，获一家一线游资（国泰海通证券上海中山东路）买入1.09亿，同时遭一家一 线游资（国泰海通证券三亚迎宾路）卖出1.33亿。太空光伏人气股协鑫集成今日高开回落，遭两家机构卖出3.43亿，同时深股通卖出 1.53亿。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 | 排名 | 板块名称 | 主力资金净流入 (亿元) | 主力资金净流入率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 文化传媒 | 58.80 | 3.40 | | റ | 影视院线 | 33.93 | 9.03 | | 3 | 出版 | 15.19 | 6.63 | | ব | 计算机 | 7.82 | 0.40 | | ഗ | 医药 | 4.54 | 0.49 | | 排名 | 板块名称 | 主力资金净流出 (亿元) | 主力资金净流出率(%) | | --- | --- | ...

沪深股通今日合计成交2730.05亿，其中贵州茅台和中际旭创分居沪股通和深股通个股成交额首位。板块主力资金方面，电子板块主力 资金净流入居首。 ETF成交方面，多只有色金属相关ETF份额大幅减少，其中有色金属ETF（512400）上周份额大减25.11亿份。龙虎榜方面，AI应用概 念股捷成股份今日2 0cm涨停，获三家一线游资（国泰海通证券三亚迎宾路、国泰海通证券上海江苏路、国盛证券宁波桑田路）合计买 入3.4 1亿。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为1257. 68亿，深股通总成交金额为1472 .37亿。 | | 沪股運（ | 2月9日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 21.12 | | 2 | 603986 | 兆易创新 | 18.64 | | 3 | 601899 | 蒸等电,亚 | 17.62 | | 4 | 688256 | 寒武纪 | 16.76 | | 5 | 601318 | 中国平安 | 14.75 | | 6 | 600522 | 中天科技 ...

Group 1: Market Performance Before and After Chinese New Year - The market is expected to exhibit typical "pre-holiday risk aversion" characteristics, with reduced trading volume reflecting cautious sentiment among investors [2] - Pre-holiday hot sectors are likely to rotate, with low-volatility and high-dividend sectors such as dividends, banks, and consumer stocks expected to attract funds [2] - Post-holiday, as policy windows open and risk appetite increases, the market focus may shift back to growth sectors with industrial catalysts and earnings certainty, such as AI applications, high-end manufacturing, and new energy [2] Group 2: Semiconductor Target Material Demand - The demand for semiconductor target materials is surging due to the AI innovation cycle and continuous upgrades in device architecture, increasing the importance of PVD (Physical Vapor Deposition) processes [3] - The global semiconductor sputtering target market is projected to reach 25.1 billion by 2027, with the display panel sputtering target market expected to reach 39.9 billion [3] - The pricing logic for target materials is strongly supported by raw material costs, with some prices doubling since early 2025 due to geopolitical factors and export restrictions [3] Group 3: Domestic Manufacturers in Target Material Market - Domestic manufacturers, led by companies like Jiangfeng Electronics, are rapidly gaining ground in the high-end target material market, achieving bulk supply to major international players like TSMC and SK Hynix [4] - These manufacturers have made breakthroughs in high-purity metal refining technology, enhancing their bargaining power and supply stability in a volatile cost environment [4] - The shift from local substitutes to global core competitors is anticipated for domestic firms due to their comprehensive industry chain layout [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the trading activities in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, focusing on the top traded stocks, sector performances, and ETF transactions, indicating significant capital flows and market trends. Group 1: Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 1,420.94 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 1,468.44 billion, totaling 2,889.38 billion for the day [2][1]. - The top traded stock in the Shanghai market was Kweichow Moutai (600519) with a transaction amount of 44.03 billion, while in the Shenzhen market, the leading stock was Tianfu Communication (300394) with 29.86 billion [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector saw the highest net inflow of capital, amounting to 15.79 billion, with a net inflow rate of 2.80% [6][7]. - Other sectors with notable capital inflows included the film and television industry (12.34 billion, 6.99%) and banking (10.70 billion, 2.83%) [5][6]. - Conversely, the new energy sector experienced the largest net outflow of capital at -202.14 billion, with a net outflow rate of -7.41% [7][8]. Group 3: ETF Transactions - The top ETF by trading volume was the Gold ETF (518880) with a transaction amount of 200.574 billion, reflecting a growth of 30.13% compared to the previous trading day [13]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (513070) saw a remarkable increase in trading volume, growing by 363.47% [14]. Group 4: Stock Performance - Pingtan Development (stock code not specified) led the net inflow of capital among individual stocks with 12.85 billion, representing a net inflow rate of 47.22% [9]. - In contrast, Zijin Mining (stock code not specified) had the highest net outflow of 22.93 billion, with a net outflow rate of -17.10% [10][11]. Group 5: Market Activity - The article notes a decrease in institutional trading activity, with fewer stocks being bought and sold compared to previous days [16]. - Notably, Pingtan Development experienced a strong surge, attracting significant investments from top-tier speculative funds [17].

一、机构动向 今日机构参与度较昨日有所降低，净买卖额超1000万元个股共2 1只，净买入7只，净卖出 1 4只，其中净买入银轮股份4.42亿、特发信息2.81亿、巨力索具2 . 4 7亿，净卖出四方股份 2 . 8 8亿、民爆光电8 11 7万、*ST铖昌8082万。 二、 焦点公司 三大指数午后跌幅收窄，此前一度跌超1%，北证5 0指数跌超2%。沪深两市成交额2.18万 亿，较上一个交易日缩量3 0 48亿。 盘面上，全市场超3 7 0 0只个股下跌。从板块来看，大消费板块大涨，食品饮料、零售、 影视院线、旅游酒店方向轮番活跃，横店影视6天5板，杭州解百2连板，安记食品、海欣 食品、金逸影视、三峡旅游涨停。大金融板块午后走强，华林证券、厦门银行涨停。商业 航天概念局部活跃，神剑股份3天2板。 算力租赁概念回暖，群兴玩具4天2板，二六三封涨停。下跌方面，有色金属、电网设备、 油气等板块跌幅居前。其中贵金属概念集体大跌，湖南白银跌停。 ...

Group 1 - The spring market is expected to experience a period of volatility, with a need for adjustment after the initial momentum of the year. The average holding period for A-shares has reached a historical low, indicating excessive trading behavior [1] - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman has led to market pricing in expectations of "QT + rate cuts" and a strong dollar, suggesting a prolonged period of a volatile market before a new upward trend can be established [1] - The AI industry continues to show growth potential, with a transition towards application-level advancements expected in the long term. The recovery of cyclical alpha has not yet reached extreme values, indicating further room for growth [1] Group 2 - TrendForce has significantly revised its forecasts for the first quarter prices of DRAM and NAND Flash products, with conventional DRAM contract prices expected to increase by 90-95% and NAND Flash prices by 55-60% [2] - Despite concerns over consumer electronics demand potentially impacting storage needs, the demand driven by AI computing is becoming dominant, sustaining storage shortages [2] - In the server DRAM segment, major cloud service providers are actively negotiating annual supply agreements, leading to a projected price increase of approximately 90% for the first quarter, marking the highest annual increase on record [3] Group 3 - The demand for high-performance storage devices is expected to exceed expectations due to the expansion of AI application scenarios, with significant order increases for enterprise SSDs anticipated [3] - As traditional storage supply-demand gaps persist, domestic storage manufacturers are under pressure to expand production. Yangtze Memory Technologies has officially registered its third phase, aiming for a 15% share of global NAND flash supply by the end of 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the trading activities in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, highlighting significant stock transactions, sector performances, and ETF trading volumes, indicating potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: Stock Trading Overview - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 322.9 billion, with Kweichow Moutai and Zhongji Xuchuang leading in transaction amounts for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets respectively [1] - The top ten stocks by trading volume in the Shanghai market included Kweichow Moutai at 4.741 billion, followed by Cambricon Technologies at 2.160 billion [2] - In the Shenzhen market, Zhongji Xuchuang topped the list with 5.845 billion, followed by CATL at 5.719 billion [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The electric equipment sector saw the highest net inflow of funds at 7.326 billion, indicating strong investor interest [6] - Other sectors with notable inflows included the new energy sector at 5.573 billion and coal mining at 3.041 billion [6] - Conversely, the electronic sector experienced the largest net outflow of funds at 21.727 billion, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [7] Group 3: ETF Trading Activity - The coal ETF (515220) experienced a remarkable trading volume increase of 335% compared to the previous trading day, indicating heightened investor interest [14] - The top ETF by trading volume was the Gold ETF (518880) with a transaction amount of 15.4129 billion, despite a decrease of 28.69% from the previous day [13] - Other ETFs with significant trading volumes included the A500 ETF Fund (512050) at 14.2358 billion and the A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan at 11.8353 billion [13] Group 4: Institutional and Retail Investor Activity - Institutional investors showed varied activity, with notable purchases in stocks like Zhongji Group and JinkoSolar, while significant sell-offs were observed in stocks like Liou Co. and Shennong Agricultural [16][17] - Retail investors, particularly from major brokerage firms, were active in trading stocks such as Zhongji Group and Hongbaoli, indicating a competitive trading environment [19] - Quantitative funds displayed high activity levels, particularly in stocks like JinkoSolar, with significant buy and sell transactions [20]

龙虎榜方面，商业航天人气股航天发展今日涨停，游资和机构联手抢筹，其中一家机构买入1.52亿，三家一线游资（中国银河大连黄河 路、国泰海通证券武汉紫阳东路、中泰证券湖北分公司）分别买入7.56亿、1.64亿、1.2 6亿。CPO概念股罗博特科20cm涨停，续创历 史新高，获深股通买入5.71亿，两家机构买入2.0 4亿，一家一线游资（国泰海通证券南京太平南路）买入2.11亿。 沪深股通今日合计成交3417.35亿，其中寒武纪和中际旭创分居沪股通和深股通个股成交额首位。板块主力资金方面，国防军工板块主 力资金净流入居首。ETF成交方面，黄金股ETF（51752 0）成交额环比增长689%。期指持仓方面，IC、IM合约多头减仓数量较多。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为1601. 97亿，深股通总成交金额为1815 .38亿。 | 排名 | 板块名称 | 主力资金净流出 (亿元) | 主力资金净流出率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 有色金属 | -31.09 | -1.20 | | N | 证券 | -29.29 | -8.44 | | 3 | 串金属 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The current spring market rally is not yet over, despite recent pullbacks in A-shares, with the index returning to around 4000 points. The analysis suggests that the market is likely to continue its upward trend due to ongoing economic recovery and supportive policies [1]. Market Analysis - Historical data indicates that the average duration of spring rallies since 2010 is 39 days, with a maximum increase of 15.8%. The current rally has lasted 31 days with a gain of 9.8%, suggesting potential for further upward movement [2]. - The analysis maintains the view that the spring rally is entering a phase of "volume contraction and price increase," with a stronger focus on quality growth factors [3]. Sector Focus - The following sectors are highlighted for their performance expectations: 1. Cyclical sectors: Focus on tight supply in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, building materials, steel, and machinery [3]. 2. Non-bank financials: Emphasis on insurance companies benefiting from short-term premium growth and mid-term investment income enhancement [3]. 3. Technology sectors with solid fundamentals: Attention on themes such as satellite navigation, commercial aerospace, memory storage, optical modules, and circuit boards, which show clear trends in earnings growth [3].