新美联储通讯社：担心通胀失控，美联储可能会暂缓降息

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma faced by the Federal Reserve in responding to the Trump administration's tariff policies, suggesting that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is in a "goalkeeper's dilemma," where maintaining interest rates to combat inflation could further slow the economy, while cutting rates to stimulate growth may exacerbate short-term inflation pressures caused by tariffs or supply shortages [1][2]. - The Fed is likely to prioritize "inflation control" in its decision-making process, especially in light of potential price increases from tariffs [2][4]. Group 2: Labor Market and Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed will closely monitor labor market changes, using employment data as a critical reference for its decisions. It will not preemptively cut rates based on anticipated economic slowdown without clear data [2][3]. - If there are clear signs of labor market deterioration, the Fed may be prepared to act, but the extent of inflation will be a limiting factor in its decision to lower rates [5][9]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations Management - Managing inflation expectations is crucial for the Fed, as stable expectations can lower the cost of controlling inflation. If expectations become unanchored, it will be more challenging to manage inflation [5][6]. - The Fed's communication strategy has become more complex due to public criticism from Trump, necessitating a cautious approach to guide market expectations [7][8]. Group 4: Divergence Among Fed Officials - There is a division among Fed officials regarding whether the price increases from tariffs will be temporary. Some believe that without the tariff-induced price pressures, the Fed might have already begun cutting rates [9][11]. - Former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren suggests that the Fed should cut rates in response to economic weakness, as rate cuts can help offset weak demand but do not address supply chain issues [9][10].