从“猪饲料”到“夜宵之王”，如今价格又腰斩：谁杀死了小龙虾的巨头梦？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the paradox of the booming crayfish industry in China, where prices have plummeted despite a surge in demand, leading to significant challenges for farmers and restaurants [4][10][12]. Price Trends - Crayfish prices have seen a drastic decline, with wholesale prices dropping from approximately 30 yuan per jin to around 13 yuan per jin, representing nearly a 57% decrease [4]. - In Hubei, a major crayfish production area, prices for certain sizes have fallen from 20 yuan per jin to 11 yuan per jin, indicating a significant market downturn [6]. Demand and Sales Growth - Despite falling prices, demand for crayfish has surged, with e-commerce platforms reporting a 606% increase in sales of live crayfish and a 78% increase in crayfish seasoning products over the past month [9]. Industry Dynamics - The crayfish industry has seen a decline in the number of registered companies, with a 5.2% year-on-year decrease in registrations and a 3.2% decrease in the total number of related enterprises as of September 2024 [10]. - The industry has not produced a dominant player despite its large scale and mature supply chain, primarily due to intense competition and low entry barriers [11]. Seasonal Consumption Patterns - The crayfish market is characterized by significant seasonal fluctuations, with a common saying in the industry indicating that profits are made in four months, while the remaining months are either break-even or loss [26]. Supply Chain Challenges - The crayfish supply chain is fragmented and lacks standardization, leading to inconsistencies in quality and size, which complicates restaurant operations and brand expansion [28]. - High transportation losses, estimated at 20%-30%, further exacerbate the challenges faced by the industry [30]. Competition from Pre-prepared Foods - The rise of pre-prepared crayfish products poses a significant threat to traditional live crayfish restaurants, as these products can be cooked and packaged near production sites, reducing costs and extending shelf life [35][37]. - The entry of large brands into the pre-prepared food market is intensifying competition, forcing traditional restaurants to engage in price wars, which may lead to a decline in quality and customer satisfaction [35][40].