Uber只是值得买入

Core Viewpoint - Uber experienced significant growth in Q4 2024, with total bookings increasing by 18% year-over-year to $44.19 billion, driven by a healthy rise in Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPC) and order frequency [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total bookings reached $44.19 billion in Q4 2024, up 18% from $37.58 billion in Q4 2023 [2]. - MAPC increased to 171 million, a 14% year-over-year growth from 150 million [2]. - Revenue rose by 20% to $11.96 billion, compared to $9.94 billion in the same quarter last year [2]. - Free cash flow surged by 122% to $1.7 billion, up from $768 million [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 44% to $1.84 billion [2]. Management Insights - CEO Dara Khosrowshahi highlighted record demand in the ride-hailing and delivery sectors, exceeding expectations for total bookings, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow [3]. - CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah projected a 14.6% year-over-year revenue growth for Q1 2025, estimating revenue at $11.61 billion [3][4]. Future Outlook - For Q1 2025, total bookings are expected to range between $42 billion and $43.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 11.4% to 15.4% [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to grow by 30% to 37%, reaching between $1.79 billion and $1.89 billion [4]. - Analysts remain optimistic about Uber's stock, with 30 out of 33 analysts rating it as a "buy" [9]. Analyst Sentiment - Despite a 40% increase in Uber's stock price, the expected 5-year compound annual growth rate has decreased from approximately 25% to about 17% [11]. - The consensus target price for Uber is between $80 and $110, with an average expectation of $90.20, indicating a potential upside of around 5% from current levels [11].