4月全球投资十大主线

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in April, highlighting the impact of U.S. tariff policies and market sentiment on various financial instruments [2][4]. Summary by Sections Global Asset Performance - In April, global bonds outperformed other asset classes with a return of 2.94%, followed by global stocks at 0.98%, while commodities saw a decline of 8.79% [2]. Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The ratio of discretionary to staple consumption in the S&P 500 has rebounded, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, influenced by Trump's tariff announcements and subsequent negotiations [4]. - Following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, the U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level since March 2022, dropping over 10% from its peak earlier in the year [4][11]. Dollar Liquidity and Credit Concerns - Dollar liquidity concerns in April 2025 were noted, but the situation was significantly better than during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, with specific credit spreads remaining lower [5][14]. Investment Preferences - A survey indicated that 42% of global fund managers expect gold to be the best-performing asset in 2025, followed by cash and government bonds [6][16]. - The Bloomberg Federal Reserve sentiment index has declined, suggesting a potential easing of upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields [6][20]. Economic Activity Indicators - The copper-to-oil ratio has been rising, which may positively impact the CSI 300 index, reflecting stronger industrial activity in China [7][26]. - Speculative positions in Japanese yen futures reached a 20-year high, indicating strong bullish sentiment towards the yen [8][28]. Currency Fluctuations - The Chinese yuan experienced significant volatility in April, initially depreciating due to tariff fears but later recovering as market expectations for U.S.-China tariff negotiations improved [9][31]. - Concerns over U.S. dollar credit led to a spike in gold prices, which reached a critical level of $3,500 per ounce [10][35]. Economic Activity Index - The weekly economic activity index from Huachuang Securities showed a rebound, indicating a positive correlation with asset prices and economic fundamentals [39]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - The article notes that the copper-gold ratio serves as a leading indicator for U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting market preferences for risk assets [41]. - The sentiment index, which combines various market indicators, has shown a decline, suggesting a shift in market mood [53]. Asset Class Performance Overview - A detailed table outlines the performance of various asset classes, with notable declines in the S&P 500 (-0.76%) and the CSI 300 (-3.00%) for the month [67].