文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 核心观点 1、发债节奏扰动叠加反内卷政策推行的影响下，静态预测，旧口径M1同比预计从9月的6.2%回落至年底 的3.4%左右，仍高于2024年年底的-1.4%；M2同比从9月的8.4%回落至年底的8.0%左右，仍高于2024年 年底的7.3%。 2、数据预测参照公式：旧口径M1=M2-其他货币；其中，M2=企业加杠杆派生+政府加杠杆派生+居民加杠 杆派生+外汇派生+其他因素派生；其他货币=居民存款+非银存款+单位定期存款和其他存款。针对上述预 测背后的主要假设： ①由于反内卷政策推进，参照前三季度趋势，四季度企业贷款同比少3000亿； ②5000亿政府债+5000亿政策性金融通工具全部落地，央行和银行增持其中的80%； ③9月末由于非银存款存在季节性扰动，我们假设9~12月非银存款加总同比去年同期持平； ④居民存款搬家需要投资回报的确定性。假设四季度权益市场的波动和回撤仍相对偏小，居民存款同比回 落幅度与三季度基本一致。 ⑤居民加杠杆、外汇派生规模以及其他因素同比去 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 近期海外关于AI泡沫的讨论逐渐增多，鲍威尔也在10月FOMC新闻发布会上被多次问及股市"泡 沫"的话题，鲍威尔回应"AI投资对利率不太敏感，估值很高的AI公司有商业模式和利润，与互联网泡沫时 期不同"。本篇周报从三组指标对美股风险进行简要观察，侧重和2000年科网泡沫时期的对比。 观察指标之一：市场估值 从PETTM来看，目前标普500指数的估值已升至1999-2000年的水平，不过MAG7的绝对估值 和相对估值均还明显低于1999-2000年时期的纳斯达克指数 。截至今年10月底，MAG7的PE 约41X，是标普500指数PE的1.4倍；1999-2000年，纳斯达克的PE超过100X，是同期标普500指数PE的4 倍以上。从典型公司来看，目前英伟达（59X）、META（23X）、微软（37X）、甲骨文（59X）的估 值，低于2000年3月份的思科（200X）、微软（56X）、雅虎（666X）、Sun Micro（123X）等公司。 从股权风险溢价（ERP）来 ...

其他值得关注的分项 ： 1 ）外贸 ：出口订单指数有所回落。新出口订单指数为 45.9% ，前值为 47.8% 。 进口订单指数为 46.8% ，前值为 48.1% 。 2 ）价格： 10 月， PMI 出厂价格指数为 47.5% ，前值为 48.2% ，连续 17 个月低于荣枯线。 10 月， PMI 主要原材料购进价格指数为 52.5% ，前值为 53.2% 。 3 ）预期 ：建筑业预期有所回升。 10 月，制造业生产经营活动预期指数为 52.8% ，前值为 54.1% 。 10 月，建筑业业务活动预期指数为 56.0% ，前值为 52.4% 。服务业业务活动预期指数为 56.1% 。前值为 56.3% 。据统计局解读，"从行业看，有色金属冶炼及压延加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产经营活 动预期指数升至 60.0% 以上高位景气区间，相关企业对行业发展信心增强。" 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 有所回落 10 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ，前值为 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上： 1 ）价格：地产和新能源品种反弹 。 螺纹钢上海现货价收于 3210 元 / 吨，上涨 0.6% ；铁矿石价格 指数 :62%Fe:CFR 中国北方收于 107.7 美元 / 吨，上涨 1.9% ；全国水泥价格指数上涨 0.2% 。工业 硅期货收盘价上涨 1.5% ，多晶硅期货收盘价上涨 7.8% ，碳酸锂期货收盘价上涨 0.5% 。 2 ）贸易潜在转口：转口贸易或仍维持偏强韧性 。 10 月 31 天，东盟主要国家港口船舶停靠数同比 升至 6.5% ， 9 月 30 天同比为 5.6% 。 景气向下： 1 ）华创宏观 WEI 指数小幅下滑。 截至 10 月 26 日，该指数为 4.82% ，环比上周下行 0.42 个点。 2 ）耐用品消费：乘用车零售降幅扩大 。 截至 10 月 26 日当周，乘用车零售同比 -9% ，前值 -3% 。 10 月前 26 日累计同比为 -6.7% 。 9 月全月同比为 +6% 。 3 ）地产销售：商品房住宅销售降幅扩 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，主要关注"十五五"规划的建议，以及《党的二十届四中全会〈建议〉学习辅导百问》（下称辅导百 问）和各部部长在《<中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议>辅导读本》（辅导 读本）的署名文章。 （一）"十五五"规划建议中的主要增量信息 6、对外开放：表态更积极。 "推进人民币国际化"（此前通常为"稳慎扎实"） 7、国防军工：部署篇幅明显增加 。此次正文内容为925字，"十四五"规划的建议中为571字。 （二）辅导百问和辅导读本中的主要增量信息 1、对于2035年经济目标 ：辅导百问提到，"按照到2035年人均GDP达到2万美元以上、比2020年翻一番 （2020年不变价）的远景目标倒算，考虑总人口预计到2035年将年均减少0.20%左右，'十五五'和'十六 五'时期GDP需要年均增长4.17%"。 2、金融及资本市场 ：1）中央金融办分管日常工作的副主任王江在辅导读本发表署名文章《加快建设金融 强国》，"稳步有序推动中小金融机构兼并重组、减量提质 ...

文 ： 华创证 券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow ） 核心观点 综合五类外需领先指标的指示来看，全球外需短期（四季度）或面临调整压力，明年上半年温和回升的概率较高。 我们统计的 20 个领先指标中，能预示到明年数 据的有 11 个，其中， 7 个指标指示明年 Q1 或整个上半年外需或趋向回升， 1 个指标显示明年 Q1 或趋平、 Q2 开启回升， 1 个指标显示欧元区库存周期明年初 或震荡，仅有 2 个指标显示明年有回落压力，但都是聚焦于"局部"的指标，包括行业协会预测电子产业链贸易增速明年微幅下滑，市场数据预测明年全球汽车销量 增速回落。 但，需要警惕的是， 确实存在外需较大幅偏高于领先指标当前水平通常指示的中枢水平的情况，可能预示存在需求前期透支后回调的风险，后续需要 密切关注。 细节详见图表 43 。 报告摘要 先抑后扬—— 20 个领先指标看外需走势 对于明年宏观环境而言，外需好坏至关重要，其直接影响中国出口，也会影响 PPI 的上行动能（ 《出口价格能带动 PPI 回升吗？——基于历史二者背离复盘的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.0% was interpreted as a "hawkish cut," indicating internal divisions regarding future monetary policy direction [2][10][29]. Group 1: October FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC cut rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, but there were dissenting votes advocating for a larger cut or no cut at all [20]. - The economic outlook has improved marginally, with GDP growth expectations for Q3 revised upward to an annualized rate of 3.9%, compared to previous quarters [21]. - The statement on employment and inflation remained unchanged, but the overall economic activity is now described as expanding at a moderate pace [21]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the meeting, the probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly from 92.3% to 68.9%, leading to increased volatility in the stock market and a rebound in the dollar index and Treasury yields [33]. - Despite the hawkish tone, there is still a strong likelihood of a rate cut in December, driven by a cooling labor market and manageable inflation risks [6][14]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Employment Trends - The labor market is showing signs of gradual cooling, with private employment figures indicating a decline in job creation [6][14]. - Inflation, particularly core PCE, is currently at 2.8%, with expectations that it may peak around 3% in the fourth quarter [14][32]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Policy Adjustments - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction by December, transitioning to a strategy of reinvesting maturing securities while maintaining a stable portfolio structure [4][22]. - The decision to halt balance sheet reduction is influenced by rising liquidity pressures in the money market and the need to align reserve levels with economic conditions [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical divergence between export prices and PPI, concluding that they will eventually synchronize, with the driving factors being external demand and exchange rate fluctuations. If external demand continues to rise, PPI will align with export prices; otherwise, export prices may lack sustained upward momentum and revert to PPI levels [2][66]. Summary by Sections Common Factors Driving Export Price Recovery - There have been four historical cycles of divergence between export prices and PPI, with most instances showing export prices converging towards PPI, except for one cycle where PPI aligned with export prices [4][19]. - The divergence is influenced by four potential factors: demand, supply, pricing settlement, and domestic factors [5][22]. Unique Factors in the Current Cycle - The current cycle is significantly impacted by tariff adjustments, leading to structural changes in China's export patterns, both in terms of regions and product types [12][43]. - Exports to low-price regions have significantly decreased, particularly to the U.S., while exports to high-price regions have increased [13][45]. - The share of high-priced goods in exports has risen, with the equipment manufacturing sector seeing a notable increase in export share [14][50]. Conclusion: Who Leads, Export Prices or PPI? - The article concludes that the synchronization of export prices and PPI depends on sustained external demand. Current conditions show some recovery in external demand, but the future trajectory remains uncertain [65][66].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the timing and implementation of the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) resumption of government bond trading, as it reflects a reasonable yield point from a short-term central bank perspective [4][13] - The article discusses the potential impact of the PBOC's actions on liquidity management, particularly in relation to the scale of re-lending during the period of government bond purchases [4][14] - It highlights the significance of banks' government bond purchases during the PBOC's operations, indicating that increased purchases could positively affect overall liquidity, while reduced purchases may have a limited impact [4][15] Group 2 - The article presents two considerations regarding the provision of liquidity to non-bank institutions, noting the correlation between non-bank deposits and equity market transaction volumes [6][19] - It suggests that the reduction in volatility of equity assets this year has improved their risk-adjusted returns, enhancing the attractiveness of equity asset allocation [6][21] Group 3 - The article outlines three thoughts on future monetary policy, indicating that the necessity for a short-term reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is low due to the current economic context [7][24] - It also states that the probability of a short-term policy interest rate cut is low, as it could accelerate the outflow of household deposits into financial markets [7][26] - The possibility of a reduction in the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is noted, as it could help lower household debt costs and improve the downward trend in housing prices [7][26] Group 4 - The article analyzes the impact of current policies on capital markets, stating that the strength of the equity market this year is attributed to reduced volatility and drawdown [8][27] - It mentions that the PBOC's resumption of government bond trading sets a framework for short-term interest rates, but the actual rates will still depend on supply and demand dynamics [8][27] - Historical experience suggests that a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds requires sustained liquidity injections from the central bank, with the potential for rapid asset price increases due to shifts in non-bank deposits [8][30]

Group 1: Profit Data Overview - In September, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 21.6% year-on-year, up from 20.4% in the previous month [2][16] - The profit margin for September was 5.46%, compared to 4.6% in the same month last year [16][17] - The revenue growth rate in September was 3.13%, an improvement from 2.3% in August [16] Group 2: Cost Structure and Profit Differentiation - The expense ratio for industrial enterprises was 8.36% for the first nine months of the year, slightly down from 8.46% in the same period last year [8][10] - R&D expenses showed a growth rate of 8.35% from January to August, indicating a strong correlation between high R&D investment and profit growth [10][11] - Sales and management expenses combined had a growth rate of -0.7% from January to August, reflecting a slowdown in profit growth in the consumer goods manufacturing sector [13] Group 3: Industry Performance - The mining industry saw a profit decline of 16.8% in September, while the manufacturing sector experienced a profit increase of 29.4% [19] - The equipment manufacturing sector's profit grew by 25.6%, contributing significantly to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [19][11] - Among the equipment manufacturing sectors, electronic equipment and automotive manufacturing had profit growth rates of 46.55% and 38.19%, respectively [19][11]