煤炭｜煤价继续拖累业绩，分红比例整体有所提升

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector's profitability has significantly declined in 2024 due to falling coal prices and regional safety supervision factors, but leading companies are increasing their dividend payout ratios to return value to investors [1][2][3]. Group 1: 2024 Performance Overview - The overall net profit of the coal sector decreased by 18% year-on-year in 2024, with total coal production of 1.236 billion tons, a growth of 0.49%, which is lower than the national coal production growth rate [2]. - The total revenue and costs for the sector changed by -4.64% and -0.11% respectively, with a gross profit margin of 23.62%, down by 4.66 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The total net profit for the sector was approximately 146.02 billion yuan, primarily impacted by declining coal prices and reduced sales volume [2]. Group 2: Dividend and Capital Expenditure - The overall cash dividend rate for listed coal companies in 2024 was 61.24%, an increase of 2.51 percentage points year-on-year, despite total cash dividends decreasing by 14.68% to 89.506 billion yuan [3]. - Capital expenditures for the sample companies in 2024 amounted to 179.641 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.60% [3]. - Operating cash flow for the sample companies was 250.7 billion yuan, while investment and financing cash flows were -220.6 billion yuan and -112.1 billion yuan respectively, with free cash flow declining by 51.6% to 98.2 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Q1 2025 Performance Insights - In Q1 2025, coal prices fell by 22.22% year-on-year, leading to a 29% decline in overall net profit for the sector [4]. - The total production and sales volume for listed coal companies changed by +3.10% and -0.99% respectively, with net profit approximately 28.683 billion yuan, down by about 29.08% year-on-year [4]. - The sales, management, and financial expense ratios were 0.92%, 7.83%, and 3.01%, showing slight year-on-year increases [4]. Group 4: Short-term Outlook - The supply pressure in the coal industry is expected to ease, with initial cost support indicating a potential bottom for coal prices, which may rebound in Q2 2025 [5][6]. - Weak demand from thermal power and accelerated supply have contributed to a loose supply situation, but signs of demand recovery are emerging, particularly in non-electric sectors [5]. - The industry sentiment may improve as coal prices approach a bottom, with expectations for a rebound in prices later in the year [6]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Despite the overall decline in Q1 2025 performance, the coal price is expected to find support at the bottom, making leading companies with attractive dividend levels worth considering for investment [8]. - The anticipated release of price pressure in Q2 could lead to improved sector performance, with leading companies likely to generate excess returns due to favorable policies and market management [8].