是说芯语·2025-05-07 03:12Market Overview and Demand Drivers - The global HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) consumption is expected to reach 16.97 billion Gb by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 162.2%, driven by unexpected demand from NVIDIA and AWS for AI chips [3] - NVIDIA holds a 70% market share, with its HBM3e 12hi products being the main demand driver, while AWS's share increases to 8% due to geopolitical risks [3] - HBM3e series dominates the market with over 95% share, while HBM3 and HBM2e are gradually exiting the market [3] Supplier Competitive Landscape - SK Hynix is projected to ship 12.4 billion Gb in 2025, capturing 52% market share, benefiting from exclusive supply to NVIDIA [4] - Samsung Electronics faces short-term challenges due to certification delays, with a revised shipment forecast of 6.8 billion Gb and a market share drop to 29% [4] - Micron Technology is expected to achieve a shipment of 4.5 billion Gb in 2025, increasing its market share from 4% to 19% due to aggressive capacity expansion [5] Customer Demand Dynamics - NVIDIA's demand is driven by upgrades in the Blackwell platform, with a 36% quarter-on-quarter increase in HBM consumption in Q1 2025 [6] - AMD's MI350 series faces stagnation in market share at 7%, with reliance on Samsung for HBM3e 12hi limiting its bargaining power [6] - Google and AWS show diverging ASIC demand trends, with AWS increasing its share to 8% through a multi-supplier strategy [7] Technological Evolution and Cost Challenges - The mass production of HBM3e 12hi is a key technological breakthrough for 2025, increasing single-chip capacity from 24GB to 36GB [8] - Production challenges arise from increased TSV perforation numbers, with initial yields at 65% for SK Hynix and 75% for Micron [8] - Innovations in packaging technology, such as NVIDIA's CoWoS-L, increase complexity and costs, while HBM4's larger die size raises unit costs [8] Supply-Demand Balance and Long-term Risks - The HBM supply-demand ratio is expected to narrow to 39.7% in 2025 from 88.6% in 2024, indicating a trend towards balance [9] - Hidden risks include long CoWoS packaging cycles leading to stockpiling, and potential demand slowdown due to algorithm optimizations [9] - Long-term growth in the HBM market will depend on technological iterations rather than mere capacity expansion, with NVIDIA planning to launch a next-generation platform with 512GB capacity by 2028 [10]