中信证券研究·2025-05-07 00:32Core Viewpoint - The unexpected increase in OPEC+ production during the May holiday period has caused significant fluctuations in the oil market, indicating a shift in OPEC+'s policy stance since 2022 and raising concerns about future diplomatic negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Changes - On May 3, 2025, OPEC+ announced adjustments to its voluntary production cuts, leading to a 1.5% drop in Brent crude oil prices, falling below the critical $60 per barrel mark [2]. - The production increase was unexpected, with an additional 41,100 barrels per day added to the production adjustment, effectively advancing the previous production increase schedule by three months [2][3]. - OPEC's statement indicated a relatively healthy market, with plans to meet again on June 1 to decide on July's production levels, emphasizing the need for discipline among member countries [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The global oil supply-demand structure is shifting towards a "loose balance," with potential oversupply if OPEC continues to increase production, which may exert downward pressure on the oil market [4][5]. - The increase in production could lead to a slight oversupply in the second quarter, as the market transitions from a "tight balance" to a "loose balance" [4]. - The core factors influencing oil prices include supply attributes and financial risk events, with macroeconomic indicators potentially leading to weaker demand, which could become a new pricing core for the oil market [6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The increase in production may reflect Saudi Arabia's desire to maintain OPEC's discipline and respond to upcoming diplomatic activities with the U.S., particularly regarding military cooperation agreements [3][5]. - The current oil price levels are near the production cost range for some U.S. shale oil producers, which could impact their revenue and capital expenditure, thereby affecting their production capabilities [3][5]. - Overall, the international oil price is expected to remain weak and volatile, with a preference for commodities like gold over oil in the current market environment [5].