债市启明｜汇市聚焦：关税对人民币的双向拉扯

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by external factors, including a weak US dollar index and heightened market expectations for US-China trade negotiations [1][2][4]. Group 1: External Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate - The US "reciprocal tariff" policy has raised concerns about the US economic fundamentals and inflation, leading to a decline in trust among foreign investors in dollar-denominated assets, resulting in a 4.37% drop in the dollar index in April [2]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar against the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar triggering a strong exchange guarantee reflect an initial increase in demand for non-USD currencies and assets [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's evaluation of the possibility of restarting trade negotiations with the US has contributed to the rise in expectations for US-China talks, supporting the offshore RMB exchange rate [2]. Group 2: Domestic Factors and Policy Implications - The pressure on the RMB exchange rate is expected to increase due to the gradual impact of US tariffs on China's export fundamentals, leading to a narrowing of the current account surplus [3][4]. - Domestic policies and the basic economic situation are expected to play a stabilizing role for the exchange rate, with a relatively restrained use of exchange rate stabilization tools in April [2][3]. - The potential for a temporary appreciation of the RMB may trigger some demand for currency settlement, which could further increase volatility in the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The balance of pressure and support factors for the RMB exchange rate appears relatively even, with expectations of short-term fluctuations around a new equilibrium [1][4]. - The weakening of the US economy is expected to continue, which may lead to a sustained weak dollar index, alleviating some depreciation pressure on the RMB [5]. - The demand for non-USD currencies and assets is expected to increase marginally, providing additional support for the RMB [5].