东吴汽车黄细里团队·2025-05-07 14:33Core Viewpoints - The growth of the motorcycle market is driven by two key factors: exports and large-displacement motorcycles, with the latter transitioning from a tool to a consumer product [2][8][11] - The domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2030, reaching 800,000 units by 2030 [3][77][80] - The overseas motorcycle market presents a substantial opportunity for Chinese brands, with an expected market size of 932 billion yuan in 2024, and a significant growth potential for large-displacement exports [4][8][11] Group 1: Market Overview - The annual motorcycle sales in China range from 19 to 20 million units, with small-displacement models dominating the market [2][15] - The motorcycle industry has undergone three phases: popularization, decline, and differentiated growth, with a notable shift towards large-displacement motorcycles since 2020 [2][19][20] - The domestic sales of fuel motorcycles are projected to decline from 7.71 million units in 2019 to 5.44 million units in 2024, while large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to grow from 110,000 to 400,000 units during the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 28.8% [3][32] Group 2: Large-Displacement Motorcycle Market - The penetration rate of large-displacement motorcycles in China is expected to increase from 1.5% in 2019 to 7.5% in 2024, indicating a growing consumer interest in this segment [3][41] - The market for large-displacement motorcycles is being driven by rising outdoor sports demand and the development of motorcycle culture, with a significant increase in motorcycle events and clubs [3][48][56] - By 2024, the share of 400-500cc models is expected to rise to 46%, indicating a trend towards higher performance and larger displacement motorcycles [3][63] Group 3: Export Opportunities - The overseas motorcycle market is projected to exceed 40 million units in 2024, with large-displacement motorcycle sales estimated at 3.44 million units, representing a significant growth opportunity for Chinese manufacturers [4][8] - In 2024, Chinese motorcycle exports are expected to reach 11.02 million units, with a 25.7% share of the overseas market, highlighting the potential for further growth in large-displacement exports [4][8] - The export of large-displacement motorcycles is accelerating, with a CAGR of 67.6% from 2022 to 2024, as domestic brands enhance their international presence [4][8] Group 4: Key Players - The leading companies in the large-displacement motorcycle market include Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang, with Chunfeng expected to become the market leader in 2024 [5][9] - Chunfeng's motorcycle sales are projected to grow from 45,000 units in 2019 to 308,000 units in 2024, with a focus on large-displacement products [5][9] - Longxin's large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to increase from 21,000 units in 2019 to 108,000 units in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 38.6% [6][9]