未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 乘用车观点更新： 短期来看，行业补贴政策已落地，看好观望需求转化下26Q1乘用车景气度复苏，坚定看好乘用 车板块。全年维度来看：国内选抗波动+出口选确定性。 国内关注高端电动化赛道中对政策扰 动不敏感的个股江淮汽车，以及高端化有望放量的吉利汽车/长城汽车/北汽蓝谷/赛力斯/理想 等；出口主线优先配置海外体系成熟、执行能力已验证的头部车企，优选比亚迪/长城汽车/奇 瑞汽车，以及零跑/小鹏/上汽集团/长安汽车等。 重卡观点更新： 回顾2025： 2025年，25年全年批发114.4万，同比+26.8%，内销79.9万，同比+32.8%，出口 34.1万，同比+17.2%，全年内销及出口超市场年初预期。25年初国四及以下营运重卡保有量69 万辆，估算25年底淘汰至45-50万辆，25年全年淘汰21万辆，25年全年内销政策拉动+自然需求 回升共振。 展望2026： 我们预计26年重卡内销有望兑现乐观情形的80-85万，同比+3%。 继续 推荐中国重汽A/H+潍柴动力+福田汽车+一汽解放+中集车辆等重卡头部车企！ 客车观点更新： 2026年以旧换新政策落地，客车政策略超预期。我们 ...

B端软件标的>C端硬件标的。H股优选【小鹏汽车+地平线机器人+小马智行/文远知行+曹操/黑 芝麻智能】；A股优选【千里科技+德赛西威+经纬恒润】 未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 本周智能汽车行情复盘： 我们编撰的智能汽车指数-1.3%，智能汽车指数（除特斯拉）+1.9%，智能汽车指数（除整 车）-7.1%。 截至2026年1月30日， 智能汽车指数PS(TTM）为15.2x ，该估值位于2023年初以 来99%分位数；智能汽车指数（除特斯拉）PS(TTM）为5.9x，该估值位于2023年初以来83% 分位数；智能汽车指数（除整车）PS(TTM）为9.9x，该估值位于2023年初以来81%分位数。 智能汽车指数标的池中 星宇股份、如祺出行、经纬恒润、福耀玻璃、理想汽车 涨幅前五。 本周行业核心变化： 1）截至2025Q4，特斯拉FSD订阅量达到110万；1）千里科技印奇出任阶跃星辰董事长；2）小 马智行与爱特博达成业务合作；3）文远知行发布通用仿真模型WeRideGENESIS；4）黑芝麻 智能与百度旗下萝卜快跑正式签署战略合作协议，双方将共同打造无人驾驶生态圈；5）北美 Robotaxi最新跟踪：截至 ...

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 本周SW汽零指数-5.74%（2026年初至今+2.85%），在SW汽车板块中排名第4；最新交易日SW 汽零PE(TTM)处于历史的82.67%分位；PB(LF)处于历史的77.62%分位。 机器人本周复盘总结： 本周万得机器人指数-6.16%（2026年初至今+0.48%），较SW汽零超额收益为-0.42%；以2025- 2026.1.30为计算区间，最新交易日万得机器人PE(TTM)处于66.92%分位，PB(LF)处于77.19%分 位。 核心覆盖标的周度变化： 1）继峰股份2025预计扭亏为盈；2）星宇股份港交所递表；3）蓝黛科技、福达股份、光洋股 份发布2025年业绩预增公告；4）新泉股份与凯迪股份达成战略合作。 部分核心覆盖标的本周涨幅情况： 【星宇股份】 +11.19%、 【北特科技】 +3.75%、 【飞龙股份】 +1.57%、 【福耀玻璃】 +0.73%。 投资要点 零部件本周复盘总结： 本周大事： 特斯拉将于26Q2终止Model S/X的生产，产线将切换用于生产Optimus；理想进军人形机器人； Figure AI发布Helix 02。 投资建议： 1）零 ...

全球分区域新能源渗透率： 2025年12月东南亚、英国、俄罗斯、拉美和大洋洲地区新能源渗透 率环比提升，其中东南亚环比提升较多，主要来自vinfast贡献。 中国车企出口： 2025年12月中国车企出口乘用车64.1万辆，出口新能源乘用车24.5万辆，新能 源渗透率达38.2%。其中比亚迪12月出口表现超预期。 投资建议与风险提示 乘用车观点更新： 短期来看，行业补贴政策已落地，看好观望需求转化下26Q1乘用车景气度 复苏，坚定看好乘用车板块。全年维度来看：国内选抗波动+出口选确定性。 国内关注高端电 动化赛道中对政策扰动不敏感的个股江淮汽车，以及高端化有望放量的吉利汽车/长城汽车/北 汽蓝谷/赛力斯/理想等；出口主线优先配置海外体系成熟、执行能力已验证的头部车企，优选 比亚迪/长城汽车/奇瑞汽车，以及零跑/小鹏/上汽集团/长安汽车等。 风险提示： 贸易战升级进一步超出预期；全球经济复苏力度低于预期 未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 电动化数据跟踪：2025年12月行业景气度低于预期，2026年1月以旧换新政策落地 2025年12月多数省市以旧换新政策预算资金池告罄，消费者观望情绪严重，行业零售同比下滑 ...

客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？ 一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真 真切切反应到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背 后支撑因素： 1）天时： 符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余年的出 海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业【走出去】。 未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 2）地利： 客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车已领先 海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 3）人和： 国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲击+新能 源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年宇通已率先提价，且需 求本身得益【旅游复苏+公交车更新需求】有望重回2019年水平。 客车这轮盈利能创新高吗？我们认为并不是遥不可及。 1）国内没有价格战。2）寡头龙头格局。3）海外无论新能源还是油车净利率远好于国内（无 需投固定资产）。4）碳酸锂成本持续下行。 客车这轮市值空间怎 ...

| 冀細菌 | 首页后 | | --- | --- | | 刘力宇 | | | 孟璐 | | | 郭雨蒙 | | | 孙仁昊 | ספר ס | | 赖思旭 | סוגים סוגים | | 童明祺 | Disto | | | | | 投资要点 | | --- | 事件： 2026年1月28日，公司公告拟配售不多于1200万股配售股份，占扩大后已发行股份总数的约 2.06%，配售价每股32.46港元，筹资净额3.83亿港元，较1月27日收市价35.66港元折让约 8.97%，所得款项净额将主要用于Robotaxi业务。 整体资金运用旨在强化公司Robotaxi与企业服务领域的战略布局。 约67.7%将投入国内外Robotaxi业务的发展，重点用于采购定制化的Robotaxi车辆、构建与之匹 配的运营体系，以及持续进行核心技术研发，以加速其商业化与市场布局；约22.3%将用于扩 展企业服务，通过运营投入、平台升级及近期完成或推进中的收购，如蔚星科技与浙江吉利商 务服务，完善从通勤、接待到差旅的全场景企业出行解决方案；其余约10%将作为营运资金及 一般企业用途。 公司将Robotaxi置于其长期发展的核心战略地 ...

Group 1: Passenger Vehicle Insights - The industry subsidy policy has been implemented, and there is optimism for a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026, with a strong outlook for the passenger vehicle sector [3][27] - For the domestic market, focus on high-end electric vehicle companies that are less sensitive to policy changes, such as Jianghuai Automobile, and those expected to see growth in high-end offerings like Geely, Great Wall, BAIC Blue Valley, Seres, and Li Auto [3][27] - For exports, prioritize leading companies with established overseas systems and proven execution capabilities, recommending BYD, Great Wall, Chery, as well as Leap Motor, Xpeng, SAIC Motor, and Changan [3][27] Group 2: Heavy Truck Insights - In 2025, the wholesale volume reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, with domestic sales of 799,000 units (+32.8%) and exports of 341,000 units (+17.2%), exceeding initial market expectations [4][32] - The estimated number of operational heavy trucks meeting National IV standards or below was 690,000 at the beginning of 2025, expected to be reduced to 450,000-500,000 by the end of the year, with a total of 210,000 units eliminated throughout 2025 [4][32] - For 2026, domestic heavy truck sales are projected to reach 800,000-850,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3%, with continued recommendations for leading companies such as China National Heavy Duty Truck, Weichai Power, Foton Motor, FAW Jiefang, and CIMC Vehicles [4][32] Group 3: Bus Insights - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy in 2026 is slightly better than expected, with the continuation of subsidy levels rather than a reduction [4][32] - In 2025, bus sales were 29,000 units, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, indicating a gap from the reasonable replacement midpoint [4][32] - For 2026, a conservative estimate of 40,000 bus sales is projected, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, supported by the number of buses over eight years old awaiting replacement [4][32] Group 4: Motorcycle Insights - The motorcycle industry is expected to see total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with large-displacement motorcycles projected at 1.26 million units (+31%) [5][29] - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to grow slightly to 430,000 units (+5%) in 2026, while exports are anticipated to reach 830,000 units (+50%) [5][29] - The focus remains on leading companies benefiting from the sustained growth in large-displacement and export markets, recommending Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [5][29]

Investment Highlights - The SW auto parts index increased by 3.85% this week, ranking second in the SW auto sector, with a year-to-date increase of 9.12% [3][14] - The latest trading day PE (TTM) for SW auto parts is at the 90.08% historical percentile, while PB (LF) is at the 83.70% historical percentile [3][38] Robotics Sector Review - The Wande Robotics Index rose by 1.38% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 7.07%, underperforming the SW auto parts sector by 2.47% [4][40] - The latest trading day PE (TTM) for Wande Robotics is at the 94.65% historical percentile, and PB (LF) is at the 96.30% historical percentile [4][45] Core Coverage Stocks Weekly Performance - Notable weekly gains include: New Coordinates +36.30%, Minshi Group +25.33%, Daimai Co. +12.57%, Top Group +11.30%, and Xusheng Group +9.87% [6][52] Major Events This Week - Elon Musk announced plans to sell Tesla's humanoid robot to the public by the end of 2027 [7][46] - Yushu announced its humanoid robot sales for 2025, exceeding 5,500 units [8][46] Investment Recommendations - For auto parts, focus on structural opportunities by selecting product-oriented companies and those entering high-value sectors to increase ASP, with a priority on establishing capacities in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [9][57] - In robotics, seek certainty in opportunities, particularly with the anticipated release of Optimus V3 in Q1 2026, and monitor order timelines and application developments from domestic companies like Xiaopeng, Yushu, and Zhiyuan [9][57]

Core Viewpoints - The smart car index increased by 2.8% this week, while the index excluding Tesla decreased by 1.4%. As of January 23, 2026, the smart car index PS (TTM) is 14.0x, ranking in the 97th percentile since the beginning of 2023, while the index excluding Tesla is 6.8x, ranking in the 94th percentile during the same period [4][11][20]. Industry Core Changes - The introduction of the "Guangdong Province Artificial Intelligence Empowering High-Quality Development of Transportation Policy Measures" confirms breakthroughs in full-area autonomous driving in Nansha [5][11]. - Tesla launched a no-safety-driver Robotaxi service, with Cybercab arriving in Buffalo, New York for winter testing [5][11]. - Lightyear Technology announced advancements in autonomous driving technology and mass production of NOA-assisted driving, along with new solutions and platforms for L4 autonomous driving and logistics [5][11]. - As of January 23, 2026, Tesla's fleet consists of 225 vehicles, with a total of 7.39 billion miles driven under FSD, while Waymo has a daily active user count of 107,900 [5][11]. Current Investment Recommendations - The industry remains optimistic about the L4 RoboX mainline for 2026, favoring B-end software stocks over C-end hardware stocks. Recommended H-shares include Xpeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, Pony.ai/Wenyan Zhixing, Cao Cao Mobility, and Black Sesame Intelligence; A-shares include Qianli Technology, Desay SV, and Jingwei Hengrun [6][11]. - Downstream application-related stocks include: - Robotaxi perspective: Integrated models like Tesla and Xpeng Motors [6][11]. - Robovan perspective: Desay SV and Jiushi Intelligent/New Stone Technology [6][11]. - Other autonomous vehicle perspectives: Mining trucks (Xidi Zhijia), ports (Jingwei Hengrun), sanitation vehicles (Yingfeng Environment), and buses (Wenyan Zhixing) [6][11]. - Technology providers and revenue-sharing models: Horizon Robotics, Baidu, Pony.ai, Wenyan Zhixing, and Qianli Technology [6][11]. - Transformation of ride-hailing/taxi services: Didi, Cao Cao Mobility, Ruqi Mobility, public transport, and Jinjiang Online [6][11]. Upstream Supply Chain Related Stocks - B-end autonomous vehicle OEMs include BAIC BluePark, GAC Group, Jiangling Motors, and Tongli Co [7][11]. - Key upstream suppliers include: - Testing services (China Automotive Research and Development Center, China Automotive Technology and Research Center) [7][11]. - Chips (Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Intelligence) [7][11]. - Domain controllers (Desay SV, Jingwei Hengrun, Joyson Electronics, Huayang Group, and Kobot) [7][11]. - Sensors (Sunny Optical Technology, Hesai Technology, and Suteng Juchuang) [7][11]. - Steer-by-wire chassis (Bertel, Nexperia, Zhejiang Shibao) [7][11]. - Lighting (Xingyu Co) and glass (Fuyao Glass) [7][11].

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 全球领先的智能驾驶硬科技产品公司，封闭场景无人卡车技术平台型供应商： 公司成立于2017年，由"大疆教父"李泽湘教授领衔创立，是全球领先的智能驾驶硬科技产品公司。公司致力于硬科技 创新，利用自动驾驶与车路协同技术，深耕封闭场景无人卡车，在矿区和封闭园区实现自动驾驶作业。公司深耕自动 驾驶及V2X技术，将自动驾驶技术与V2X车路协同技术结合，使得公司在封闭场景下的解决方案优势尤为突出，同时 保证车辆运行的效率与安全性。 深耕封闭场景无人卡车，解决方案加速落地矿山场景： 公司的元矿山整体解决方案，同时结合了智能驾驶、V2X等多项技术，是可推广至其他应用场景的平台型产品。2023 年内蒙古阿拉善露天矿事故后，国家政策全面推进矿山无人化/少人化，提出到2026年全国煤矿智能化产能占比不低于 60%等行业智能化率底线；公司作为煤矿智能化方案的领先供应商，将受益于政策推动，产品落地持续推进。据灼识咨 询预测，中国智能驾驶商用车市场规模于2024年达到人民币48亿元，受益于政策利好及智能驾驶技术的持续提升，该 市场规模快速增长，预计到 2030 年将达到人民币7,743亿元。 公司是 ...