深度专题 | 提振消费的“关键”？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of consumption promotion policies in the context of economic challenges, highlighting the need for structural adjustments and support for both goods and service consumption [2][3][6]. Group 1: Historical Review of Consumption Promotion Policies - China's consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies (e.g., rural subsidies, trade-in subsidies, consumption vouchers) and indirect support policies (e.g., tax reductions on vehicle purchases) [2][9]. - The first round of rural subsidies (2009-2012) had significant effects, supported by central and local fiscal subsidies, with a total investment of 76.5 billion yuan leading to sales of 659.76 billion yuan [20][23]. - Local governments have primarily used consumption vouchers since 2020, targeting various sectors like tourism and dining to stimulate local economies [16][18]. Group 2: Factors Restricting Consumption - Short-term constraints on consumption recovery include slow income recovery and supply-side limitations, with property and transfer income only recovering to about 75% of pre-pandemic levels [4][39]. - The housing market's downturn has significantly impacted household balance sheets, with housing loans constituting 53.8% of total loans, leading to reduced consumer confidence [47][49]. - Long-term challenges include an aging population and a mismatch between traditional supply and new consumption demands, which may hinder consumption growth [52][53]. Group 3: Expectations for Consumption Promotion - Future policies should focus on enhancing service consumption while maintaining strong growth in goods consumption, with an emphasis on structural optimization [6][63]. - The government is expected to implement measures to increase residents' income and reduce their financial burdens, such as lowering mortgage rates and providing rental subsidies [6][75]. - Stabilizing the real estate and stock markets is crucial for restoring household net income and boosting consumer confidence, as housing constitutes a significant portion of household assets [7][86].