中金：美联储不会先发制人降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach amid rising risks of both unemployment and inflation, suggesting a potential "stagflation" scenario [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve acknowledges the increased risks of higher unemployment and inflation, reflecting a dual mandate concern [2] - Despite these risks, economic data remains robust, with low unemployment and ongoing consumer spending and business investment, leading to a wait-and-see approach [3] - The Fed is unlikely to initiate rate cuts in the short term, especially not preemptively, as current conditions do not warrant immediate action [3] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Scenarios - Two potential scenarios for future rate cuts are outlined: 1. If trade negotiations fail and tariffs remain high, the Fed may be forced into a "recession-style" rate cut, potentially reducing rates by 100 basis points by year-end [4] 2. If trade negotiations yield positive results, rate cuts may be delayed until December, with a more moderate reduction expected [5] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations adds complexity to the Fed's decision-making process, with the current macroeconomic environment being less favorable for capital markets [5]