2025年Q1 Counterpoint宏观指数

Core Insights - The Counterpoint macro index continuously monitors the global technology industry's monthly environment and market sentiment, covering four core dimensions [2] - The index aims to address key macro trend questions for technology industry decision-makers [2] Positive Factors - Economic Data: - GDP growth remains stable across most regions [4] - Inflation is generally controllable, though concerns about localized rebounds persist [4] - Consumer Sentiment: - Overall business sentiment is positive [4] - Technology Industry Sentiment: - The AI wave is expanding into energy, infrastructure, and other sectors [5] - Political and Policy Factors: - Interest rates in developed countries are on a steady decline, with a rate-cutting cycle underway [5] - China is expected to achieve its annual GDP target under stimulus policies [5] Risk Factors - Trade War: - The US-China tariff war has significantly heightened negative sentiment [7] - Supply Chain: - High tariffs are putting pressure on the technology and manufacturing supply chains [7] - Inflation: - Trade wars, tax cuts, and rising US Treasury yields are making the fiscal situation in the US increasingly unsustainable [7] - There is a high probability of inflation rebounding in the US [7] - Regulatory Environment: - Divergence in regulatory frameworks between the US and other countries is emerging [7] - The US is rapidly exiting the ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) agenda [7] - The index may experience declines similar to those seen from the second half of 2022 to the first half of 2023 [7] - Geopolitical Tensions: - Conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza may present turning points, but US-China tensions are expected to reach historical peaks [7]