新债王：美股怎么能不跌？金价会到4000美元

Core Viewpoint - The current market uncertainty is primarily driven by economic weakness and rising long-term interest rates, alongside increasing unemployment and abnormal yield curve changes [1][2][4]. Economic Indicators - Unemployment rates are rising and are above both the 36-month and 12-month moving averages, which typically indicate a recession [2][4]. - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are increasing despite economic weakness, with daily interest payments on debt reaching $4 billion [2][11]. - The yield curve, specifically the 2-year to 10-year spread, has been inverted for a long time but has recently turned positive, which usually signals economic issues [4][10]. Investment Insights - Investors are favoring more liquid assets over long-term bonds, anticipating a steepening yield curve [5][11]. - The demand for gold is increasing due to concerns over geopolitical instability, tariffs, and existing massive debt, positioning gold as a true monetary asset [6][12]. - Gundlach predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000, indicating a long-term bullish trend [7][8][12]. Market Predictions - The S&P 500 index is expected to have significant downside potential, with a support level projected around 4,600 points [3][8][13]. - The spread between low-quality junk bonds (CCC-rated) and higher-rated bonds (BB-rated) has widened significantly, exceeding the 200-day moving average, which is a negative signal for the market [4][11].