物价率先反应外需变化——4月经济数据前瞻

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in April, economic indicators will reflect changes influenced by external demand, with a potential state of "stable volume and weak price" expected in the economy [2][4]. Group 1: Export and Import Trends - Export resilience is indicated by a 7.3% year-on-year increase in container throughput at monitored Chinese ports as of April 27, compared to 8.9% in March [4] - Container shipping capacity from China to the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of approximately 5% in April, down from 19.1% in March, suggesting some downward pressure on direct exports to the U.S. [4] - U.S. imports are expected to rise, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in overall import value as of April 24, compared to 0.1% at the end of March [4][11] - Vietnam's imports in early April increased by 16.1% year-on-year, reflecting a "import grabbing" effect [4][11] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Investment - Retail sales growth is projected at around 5.3% in April, supported by the "trade-in for new" policy, with specific growth rates of 5.0% for dining and automotive sectors [5][13] - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to be 4.0% for January to April, with real estate investment declining by 10.5% and manufacturing investment increasing by 9.0% [5][14] Group 3: Financial Indicators - New social financing in April is expected to be around 660 billion, an increase of 1 trillion compared to the same period last year, with a social financing stock growth rate of approximately 8.6% [6][17] - M2 money supply is projected to grow by 7.2% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to grow by 2.1% [6][17] Group 4: Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to be around -3% year-on-year in April, influenced by declining prices of major commodities such as copper and crude oil [7][19] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be around -0.2% year-on-year, with food prices projected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month [8][18]