中金：怎么理解房价与消费的关系？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between real estate prices and consumption in China, emphasizing that the primary driver of real estate value is land, which has monopolistic and financial attributes. This leads to a strong cyclical nature in real estate, where rising prices often correlate with increased private sector leverage, particularly among low-income households [1][2][3]. Group 1: Real Estate and Consumption Dynamics - The relationship between housing prices and consumption is not straightforward; both may be driven by credit expansion. In the early stages of a financial cycle, credit expansion raises housing prices, which in turn boosts credit, potentially accelerating macroeconomic consumption [2][3][12]. - During the financial cycle's downturn, housing price adjustments lead to a contraction in credit and consumption, indicating that macro policies should focus on fiscal measures to address demand shortages, such as supporting social welfare and housing for families [2][3][12]. Group 2: Wealth Effect and Consumption Factors - Key factors influencing consumption include current wealth, income, income expectations, and consumption propensity. The relationship between these factors and housing prices varies across different economic contexts and stages of real estate development [3][14]. - The wealth effect suggests that rising housing prices can increase the wealth of homeowners, potentially boosting consumption. However, this is often accompanied by rising debt levels, which may not sustain long-term consumption growth [3][14]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparative Analysis - Historical experiences from the US and Japan show that consumption tends to perform well during housing price increases and weakens during declines. In China, consumption growth was not significantly boosted during the rapid housing price increases from 2016 to 2019, likely due to rising leverage suppressing consumption [4][15][16]. - The article highlights that in the US and Japan, during housing price increases, consumption growth is typically stronger in services compared to durable and non-durable goods. In contrast, during price declines, consumption shifts towards essential services and non-durables, with durable goods facing more pressure [5][44][47]. Group 4: Structural Changes in Consumption - The article notes that as housing prices rise, consumption patterns shift, with services like healthcare and entertainment seeing higher growth rates compared to basic necessities. This trend is observed in both the US and Japan, where the demand for convenience and upgraded services has increased [31][59][66]. - In China, the consumption growth rate has been declining alongside rising housing prices, indicating a potential disconnect between wealth accumulation through real estate and actual consumption behavior [26][28][30].