Core Viewpoint - The current Chinese liquor industry is facing a demand gap, and the recovery from the cyclical bottom relies on demand support. The article explores long-term demand trends, analyzes the current demand situation, and summarizes the characteristics of demand recovery periods [1][3]. Demand Outlook - Long-term demand for liquor is expected to show slight contraction, with a projected annual decline in per capita consumption. The main drinking demographic (males aged 20-60) peaked at 425 million in 2020 and is forecasted to decline slightly over the next decade [3][8]. - Price growth is supported by rising household income and increasing market concentration, with a historical CAGR of 10% for liquor prices from 1999 to 2024. The next five years are expected to see continued mid-to-high single-digit price growth [3][17]. Demand Cycle Characteristics - Since 2013, liquor consumption has shifted from being primarily driven by political and business needs to a more diversified demand structure, with increased influence from household wealth effects [4][24]. - The liquor demand cycle has experienced four recovery phases from 2011 to 2022, with demand fluctuations typically beginning with policy stimuli and taking 1-2 quarters to reflect in financial reports [4][36]. - Market sentiment impacts stock prices, with positive sentiment lagging behind demand recovery by 1-2 quarters, while negative sentiment often leads stock prices to recover before demand bottoms out [4][35]. Current Demand Situation - The current demand for liquor is at a historical low, with a demand index at the 28th percentile over the past five years, indicating limited downside risk. The article anticipates gradual recovery supported by a favorable policy environment [5][43]. - Short-term demand is expected to be rigid, with potential recovery in banquet demand due to low base effects, while mid-term policy stimuli may stabilize high-end liquor demand [5][54]. Long-term Trends - The liquor industry is projected to continue experiencing slight volume contraction, with market share increasingly concentrated among leading enterprises. The number of large-scale liquor companies has decreased significantly from 1,593 in 2017 to 989 in 2024 [16][23]. - The price of liquor is expected to rise steadily, supported by ongoing increases in disposable income and the dual consumption and financial attributes of liquor, which provide resilience during economic downturns [17][23].
中金 | 寻找酒业跨越周期的力量二：如何看当前白酒需求？
中金点睛·2025-05-08 23:33