Group 1 - The peak impact of tariff events has passed, and A-shares are expected to continue their recovery amidst fluctuations. The extreme drop on April 7 was a one-time reaction to the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" event, and the rebound in April is a correction of pessimistic sentiment. With the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions in May, A-shares have entered a new phase of substantial recovery, although the process is not smooth due to uncertainties regarding the impact of the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on the global economy [1][2][3] - Industries with high dependence on overseas business, such as consumer electronics and CXO, are likely to be significantly affected by "reciprocal tariffs." In contrast, domestic consumption and technological self-innovation are expected to benefit from future hedging policies [1][2] Group 2 - In May, attention can be refocused on technology growth sectors. The low valuation and high dividend direction yielded excess returns in April, and the market style may switch back to technology growth in May. Catalysts for technology sectors include updates to AI large models and developments in robotics competitions [2] - The AI development transition from model training to inference was confirmed at the NVIDIA GTC conference, with emerging AI directions such as cloud computing, AI+office, and AI+medicine to be monitored in May [2] - The trend of domestic semiconductor production continues, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, semiconductor materials, and IC design [2] - The low-altitude economy is expected to accelerate following the announcement of six pilot cities in November 2024, with strong expectations for catch-up performance in ground takeoff and landing facilities and low-altitude aircraft [2] Group 3 - The technology growth sector showed active performance, while cyclical industries lagged. The market maintained an upward trend, with the ChiNext index leading gains. The total trading volume approached 1.3 trillion, indicating a relatively high level. Among 31 primary industry sectors, leading sectors included communication, defense, electric equipment, banking, and machinery, primarily technology growth sectors. In contrast, lagging sectors included beauty care, non-ferrous metals, steel, petrochemicals, and transportation, which are mainly cyclical sectors [3]
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申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部·2025-05-09 02:32