麦肯锡全球并购报告：并购浪潮终于到来？

Core Viewpoint - The global M&A market is expected to recover by 2025, with improved transaction returns, although geopolitical and policy barriers may pose challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Optimistic M&A Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is more favorable compared to previous years, with resilient global economic performance and stable employment rates [2]. - Companies seeking M&A have strong balance sheets and significant cash reserves, estimated at approximately $7.5 trillion in idle cash on non-financial balance sheets [2]. - There is a backlog of demand for M&A as companies shift focus from organic growth to strategic acquisitions, particularly in sectors like banking, life sciences, oil and gas, technology, and advanced manufacturing [2]. Group 2: Strategic M&A Approaches - Leading M&A participants often adopt a programmatic acquisition strategy, conducting multiple small to medium-sized acquisitions annually, resulting in a median excess shareholder total return of 2.3% [3]. - The political landscape and regulatory changes following significant elections in 2024 are expected to reshape market operations, necessitating strategic adjustments by companies [3]. Group 3: Role of Private Equity - Private equity is anticipated to be a significant driver of M&A market growth in 2025, with over $2 trillion in uninvested capital globally [4]. - The average holding period for private equity exits reached a historical high of 8.5 years in 2024, indicating a need for investors to seek returns [4]. - The private equity sector has seen substantial growth, with assets increasing by 34% from 2020 to 2023, reaching $28 trillion, nearly matching the total growth of public funds [4]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The M&A market in 2025 faces challenges from geopolitical instability, trade policy changes, and regulatory decisions, which could impact economic growth and M&A activity [5][6]. - Increased regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the U.S., may complicate transaction processes, requiring more comprehensive disclosures and potentially extending preparation times for complex deals [6]. Group 5: 2024 M&A Market Performance - In 2024, the global M&A transaction value for deals over $25 million grew by 12% to $3.4 trillion, with the number of transactions increasing by 8% to 7,784 [7]. - The average transaction value rose by 4% to $443 million, although mega-deals (over $10 billion) decreased by 6% to $664 billion [7]. - Mid-sized transactions (between $1 billion and $10 billion) became the most favored type, increasing their share of global M&A activity from 41% in 2023 to 46% in 2024 [7]. Group 6: Regional M&A Activity - In the Americas, M&A activity returned to pre-pandemic levels, with a 12% increase in transaction value to $1.8 trillion and a 9% increase in transaction volume to 2,763 [10]. - European participants focused on enhancing resilience amid economic challenges, with a 15% increase in transaction value to $845 billion in 2024 [11]. - The Asia-Pacific region saw a 10% increase in M&A transaction value to $797 billion, although it remained below pre-pandemic levels, with notable structural changes in the market [12]. Group 7: Future M&A Strategies - Companies can enhance their M&A capabilities by adopting AI for transaction screening, expanding their search for potential targets beyond traditional methods [15]. - Focusing on smaller acquisitions can mitigate risks and accelerate the M&A process, especially in uncertain environments [16]. - Strengthening due diligence processes is crucial for maximizing value from transactions, with AI tools aiding in efficiency [17]. - Companies should aim to realize comprehensive synergies beyond cost savings, including revenue and portfolio synergies [18]. - Improving integration methods is essential, with leading participants leveraging AI to streamline the process and ensure alignment with value creation goals [20].