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全文阅读时间约为27分钟。 企业正经历AI智能体引发的转型阵痛。本文为CEO提供破局思路，助力企业抢占先机。 向上滑动阅览 边栏注释： 【 3 】 基于 Epoch AI 数据，引自 Mary Meeker 、 Jay Simons 、 Daegwon Chae 和 Alexander Krey ， Trends–Artificial Intelligence ， Bond ， 2025 年 5 月。 【 4 】 "Measuring AI ability to complete long tasks" ， Metr ， 2025 年 3 月 19 日。 【 5 】 Michael Nuñez ， "Anthropic overtakes OpenAI: Claude Opus 4 codes seven hours nonstop, sets record SWE-Bench score and reshapes enterprise AI" ， VB ， 2025 年 5 月 22 日；以及 "How we built our multi-agent research system" ， Anthropi ...

问题一旦被错误界定，再努力寻找答案，也只会南辕北辙。 作者： Aaron De Smet 和 Tim Koller 哪怕出发点再正确，管理者也会常常在无意中陷入认知与组织层面的偏见，进而影响决策质量。本文将 系统梳理这些隐秘却顽固的心理机制，并提供切实可行的应对之策。 本期聚焦： 当问题本身即是谬误 现实困境 某国际电商零售企业的营销高管注意到，平均订单金额出现下滑，并决定采取行动扭转趋势。他们召集 数据分析团队，抛出了一个问题："哪些促销方式，能够最快提升平均订单金额？"围绕这一提问，团队 随即展开了一系列实验：加大广告投放、推出捆绑折扣、实施价格优惠、强化追加销售等。 这些促销举措在短期内确实显著推高了平均订单金额，但从更长周期看，用户活跃度与利润率却持续走 低。6个月后，客户调研揭示了真正的问题所在：消费者对产品质量与配送可靠性的信任正在流失。管 理层这才意识到，为刺激短期需求而采取的措施，反而进一步挤压了生产端与供应链能力，实质上加剧 了质量与交付问题。 框架效应最常见的影响之一，就是提出错误问题。在商业决策中，若问题被界定得过于狭窄，或其中隐 含的前提假设从未被认真审视，团队往往会在错误方向上不断优 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of measuring the quality of consumer attention in the media industry, rather than just the quantity of time spent on content [3][4] - A new analytical framework called the "Attention Equation" is introduced to better understand the true value of attention and its impact on revenue generation [5][15] Consumer Attention Landscape - There is a growing disparity between the explosive growth in content supply and the stagnation in consumer time spent on media, which has only increased by about 1% to 2% annually over the past decade [6][7] - The media landscape is characterized by an overwhelming abundance of content, leading to diluted consumer attention and challenges in converting engagement into revenue [7][11] Attention Value Discrepancies - Different media types exhibit significant variations in the value generated per hour of consumer attention, with live sports events commanding the highest value at $33 per hour, while digital media like podcasts generate much lower values [11][14] - The article highlights that traditional media still holds a relatively high monetization capability compared to digital media, despite the latter's growing consumption time [11][14] Attention Quality Factors - The "Attention Quality" (AQ) is identified as a critical factor influencing monetization differences across media types, comprising consumer focus levels and the specific tasks consumers aim to accomplish through media consumption [15][19] - Higher consumer focus correlates with increased spending, with a 10% increase in focus leading to a 17% rise in media spending [21][28] Consumer Segmentation - The article identifies three high-value consumer segments: "Content Enthusiasts," "Interactive Enthusiasts," and "Community Trendsetters," who exhibit both high attention and commercial value [23][24] - Approximately 40% of consumers fall into these high-value categories, while the remaining 60% have lower attention and commercial value [27][28] Implications for Media Stakeholders - The findings suggest that media companies should focus on the quality of attention rather than just the quantity, as this will drive better engagement and revenue outcomes [30][34] - Advertisers and content creators are encouraged to align their strategies with the attention quality metrics to enhance the effectiveness of their campaigns and content [31][33]

Core Insights - The article discusses the different stages of a CEO's tenure, highlighting the unique opportunities and challenges faced at each stage, akin to the changing seasons [3][4] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding potential blind spots that CEOs may encounter throughout their careers, which can lead to misjudgments and missed opportunities [10][12] Group 1: CEO Stages - Spring Phase: Preparation before taking office, where the future CEO should accumulate experience and demonstrate leadership qualities to be the obvious choice when the opportunity arises [6] - Summer Phase: The first two years after taking office, where the new CEO must drive the organization towards the chosen direction and unleash productivity potential [6] - Autumn Phase: After a successful start, the challenge shifts to planning the long-term direction of the company while avoiding complacency [6] - Winter Phase: In the final stage of tenure, the focus is on preparing for succession, determining the right time to step down, and ensuring a smooth transition [6] Group 2: Performance Metrics - The article identifies key performance indicators for CEOs, including excess shareholder returns, ethical conduct, employee sentiment, organizational impact on environmental and social issues, and succession planning [5] - A study of 200 top CEOs revealed they created approximately $5 trillion in economic value above their peers, surpassing the GDP of Germany [7] Group 3: CEO Blind Spots - Research indicates that CEOs often overestimate their ability to drive cultural transformation and manage personal effectiveness, particularly in the early stages of their tenure [14] - In the mid-tenure phase, CEOs may struggle to maintain a clear and compelling vision, often becoming complacent due to past successes [15] - As tenure progresses, strategic clarity can become a challenge, with some CEOs opting for stability while others may take excessive risks [16] Group 4: Learning from Experience - Interviews with over 80 top CEOs revealed common strategies for avoiding pitfalls and clarifying paths to success, emphasizing the importance of continuous self-improvement and adaptation [19][20]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of a new organizational paradigm called "agent-based organizations," where humans collaborate with AI agents to create value, marking a significant transformation in organizational structure driven by AI technology [2][5]. Group 1: Key Characteristics of Agent-Based Organizations - AI is expected to unlock substantial value, with companies deploying various levels of virtual agents, from simple tools to fully automated systems [3]. - The evolution of operational models is underway, with AI fundamentally changing knowledge work and integrating humans, agents, and machines into a cohesive work structure [5]. - The speed of AI's evolution is remarkable, with the ability to perform stable tasks doubling approximately every seven months since 2019, and this cycle is expected to shorten to four months starting in 2024 [5]. Group 2: Five Pillars of Agent-Based Organizations - The five pillars include business models, operational models, governance systems, talent and culture, and technology and data [6]. - In the banking sector, for example, AI agents can automate various processes, from property matching to loan approvals, creating a network of agent teams supervised by human experts [6]. Group 3: Business Model Transformation - Sustainable competitive advantage in the AI era will depend on three capabilities: deepening customer relationships through AI channels, completely reshaping business processes with AI, and creating unique data barriers [9]. - AI-native startups and agent-based companies are expected to reshape industry landscapes, significantly increasing productivity while decoupling costs from growth [9]. Group 4: Operational Model Changes - The operational model will shift to an AI-first approach, with human involvement becoming optional and focused on strategic oversight rather than execution [13][14]. - Agent teams will become the basic unit of organization, responsible for managing AI workflows and directly accountable for end-to-end business outcomes [15]. Group 5: Governance System Evolution - Governance in agent-based organizations will transition to real-time, data-driven processes embedded within business workflows, with humans retaining ultimate responsibility [17][19]. - The role of financial leaders will evolve from report consolidation to interpreting signals and participating directly in business decisions [18]. Group 6: Talent and Culture Transformation - Human roles will shift from task executors to owners and guides of end-to-end business outcomes, necessitating a restructured talent system and a culture that emphasizes continuous learning and adaptation [21][29]. - New roles will emerge, including T-shaped experts and AI-enhanced frontline workers, requiring a redesign of performance management systems [23][27]. Group 7: Technology and Data Management - Technology and data will become democratized within agent-based organizations, with a focus on distributed ownership and simplified integration of systems [30][31]. - The shift from centralized to distributed data management will enable business personnel to build software assets and manage data autonomously [31]. Group 8: Path to Transformation - Organizations must embrace bold visions and rapid actions to transition to agent-based structures, focusing on breaking down functional silos and empowering cross-functional teams [36][37]. - Leaders should communicate the value of technology in serving organizational missions and employee growth, while also addressing skills training and change management [37].

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in growth logic for Chinese companies, emphasizing the transition from external growth drivers to internal organizational restructuring and capability enhancement for sustainable growth in a changing market environment [2][3]. Group 1: Changes in Growth Logic - The underlying logic of growth for Chinese enterprises remains centered on consumer needs and internal capabilities, but the external environment has fundamentally changed, leading to market slowdown and increased competition [3]. - Companies must shift from broad growth strategies to more precise, differentiated, and value-driven growth approaches, focusing on specific market segments to create economic value [3]. Group 2: Resilient Growth Concept - "Resilient growth" is defined as a combination of growth and resilience, emphasizing efficiency and cost optimization as prerequisites for growth [4][5]. - Companies need to establish agile iteration capabilities to respond quickly to market changes and consumer feedback, moving away from long-cycle perfect innovations [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation Strategies - The article introduces "thematic innovation," which contrasts with past point-based innovation, advocating for a systematic approach to innovation based on consumer needs, competitive landscape, and technological trends [6]. - Companies must develop a complete rapid iteration system to support thematic innovation, moving beyond reliance on singular breakthrough products [6][7]. Group 4: Organizational Structure - The concept of "big system, small knife" is proposed, where a robust organizational structure ensures control while allowing for agile, independent business units to respond quickly to market demands [8]. - Traditional matrix organizations face challenges in fast-paced markets, necessitating a shift to a structure that promotes rapid decision-making and accountability [8]. Group 5: Brand Building and Channel Transformation - Successful brand building in China requires understanding consumer psychology and addressing contradictions in consumer preferences, such as the desire for quality and cultural identity [9][10]. - The focus of brand strategy is shifting from mere promotion to enhancing consumer experience throughout the purchasing journey, necessitating organizational changes to integrate marketing, sales, and product development [10]. Group 6: Consumer Experience - Companies must prioritize consumer experience as the highest dimension of business, ensuring that all organizational actions align with enhancing the consumer journey from awareness to loyalty [11]. - The CEO should oversee the consumer experience strategy, ensuring it is integrated across departments and aligned with organizational goals [11]. Group 7: AI Utilization - The article notes that only 6% of companies have successfully created value through generative AI, highlighting the potential for AI to assist in decision-making and operational efficiency [12]. - The integration of generative AI with automation and hardware can significantly enhance productivity and reduce costs in manufacturing and logistics [12]. Group 8: Leadership Evolution - Future leaders in Chinese enterprises need to blend the structured approach of professional managers with the visionary traits of entrepreneurial leaders to navigate the complexities of the current market [13]. - Building a team of leaders with a general manager mindset is essential for fostering resilience and adaptability within organizations [13]. Group 9: Strategic Implementation - Effective strategy implementation requires breaking down broad strategies into quantifiable goals and ensuring clear communication across all organizational levels [14]. - The role of a strategic interpreter is crucial for translating high-level visions into actionable plans that resonate with all employees [14].

Core Insights - The Global Lighthouse Network has added 23 new manufacturing benchmark companies, reflecting the ongoing industrial transformation and ambition for change in the global manufacturing sector since its inception in 2018 [2][3] - The new lighthouse factories are transitioning from fragmented digital pilots to comprehensive AI-driven transformations, excelling in five dimensions: production efficiency, supply chain resilience, customer-centricity, sustainability, and talent [3][5] - China has surpassed 100 lighthouse factories, marking a significant milestone in smart manufacturing and showcasing the country's capabilities in large-scale implementation and technological innovation [6] Group 1: New Lighthouse Factories - The new lighthouse factories are focusing on three AI-enabled scenarios: building scalable digital and data infrastructure for agility, empowering employees through human-machine collaboration, and enhancing AI impact through cross-departmental collaboration [5] - These factories are evolving from "smart factories" to "cognitive networks," achieving a balance between speed, standardization, autonomy, visibility, connectivity, and cybersecurity [5] Group 2: Industry Impact - The Global Lighthouse Network aims to recognize world-class factories and value chains that excel in production efficiency, supply chain resilience, customer-centricity, sustainability, and talent [8] - The initiative is a collaboration between the World Economic Forum and McKinsey & Company, supported by industry leaders committed to shaping the future of global manufacturing [8]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of effective communication and leadership for new or incoming CEOs, highlighting that their mindset, communication efficiency, and actions are critical to success [3] Group 1: Growth Orientation - New CEOs should establish a clear communication framework from day one, connecting their leadership team with internal and external stakeholders [4] - Successful CEOs follow a systematic approach to build consensus among executives, utilize "narrative ambassadors" to amplify influence, and enhance storytelling capabilities within their teams [4] Group 2: Building Executive Consensus - Exceptional CEOs leverage their executive teams to accelerate information flow, broaden audience reach, and enhance communication effectiveness [5] - Creating dedicated spaces for communication as a core agenda item can significantly strengthen team cohesion and clarity of organizational narrative [5] Group 3: Identifying Narrative Ambassadors - Organizations should identify "narrative ambassadors" who can effectively disseminate key information and connect diverse viewpoints [10] - These ambassadors typically possess qualities such as being connectors, centers of influence, and problem solvers within the organization [10] Group 4: Teaching Storytelling - Top CEOs not only excel at storytelling but also understand the importance of teaching others to do the same, fostering a shared language and narrative within the organization [11] - This approach enhances team potential and builds long-term organizational capabilities, creating a cycle of talent development and renewal [11] Group 5: Engaging with Stakeholders - New CEOs should actively involve team members in meetings with key stakeholders to broaden their exposure and enhance collaboration [12] - Maintaining a consistent interaction rhythm with stakeholders is crucial for building trust and ensuring effective communication [20] Group 6: Crisis Management - Effective crisis management is closely tied to high-quality stakeholder communication, necessitating the establishment of a crisis response plan early in a CEO's tenure [19] - CEOs should focus on identifying and addressing core issues during crises, ensuring that their performance in these areas serves as effective communication [19] Group 7: Daily Operations Integration - CEOs typically spend about 30% of their time engaging with external stakeholders, and this rhythm can be adjusted based on situational needs [20] - Flexibility in scheduling allows CEOs to capture emerging opportunities and maintain a focus on building deep, trust-based relationships with stakeholders [21]

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the future of mobility will be defined by intelligence rather than traditional mechanical or energy forms, highlighting the strategic direction of Xiaopeng Motors over the past decade [2][3]. Group 1: Company Evolution and Strategy - Xiaopeng Motors was founded by a diverse team of engineers with a vision that diverges from traditional automotive definitions, focusing on "AI-defined" mobility [3]. - The company shifted from a technology-driven approach to a consumer-centric model, recognizing the importance of understanding user needs [3]. - Global expansion has been a priority, with Xiaopeng establishing a presence in over 50 countries, differentiating itself from competitors focused solely on the domestic market [4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market is characterized by intense competition, which drives innovation and keeps companies competitive [5]. - Chinese consumers are more receptive to new technologies, which accelerates innovation cycles compared to Western markets [5]. - The robust supply chain in China, built over years of industrial accumulation, is a critical factor enabling Chinese EVs to stand out globally [5]. Group 3: Addressing Over-Competition - Competition is viewed as healthy and necessary for industry development, but there are concerns about extreme competitive practices leading to "involution" [6]. - Companies must focus on differentiation through innovation and strong branding to avoid being consumed by over-competition [6]. - Xiaopeng aims to establish a unique brand identity and leverage global expansion to mitigate the risks of excessive competition [6]. Group 4: Brand Differentiation - Xiaopeng focuses on aspects that are hard to replicate, such as advanced smart driving technologies, to build its brand [7]. - The company has been a pioneer in introducing features like highway autonomous driving and has positioned itself as a technology-centric brand for future mobility [7]. Group 5: Globalization Efforts - Xiaopeng began its global journey early, starting with markets in Northern Europe, and has learned to adapt its business models to different markets [8]. - The company has successfully established itself as a leader in the high-end Chinese EV segment in Europe, with a focus on long-term brand building and local partnerships [9]. Group 6: Future Outlook and Technological Expansion - The company believes that the future of mobility extends beyond vehicles to include diverse solutions like robotics and AI, which could be larger markets than the current automotive sector [13]. - Xiaopeng's capabilities in AI and autonomous driving naturally lead to opportunities in the robotics field, leveraging existing technologies [13]. Group 7: Entrepreneurial Spirit and Leadership - The entrepreneurial spirit and ambition of Chinese leaders are seen as key advantages in navigating the rapidly evolving landscape of the EV industry [15]. - Successful entrepreneurs in the EV sector often have prior experience in other industries, which provides them with confidence and resources to tackle complex challenges [15].