出口韧性从哪来？——4月外贸数据解读【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth in April recorded a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, which is a decline of over 4 percentage points from March but higher than market expectations, indicating strong export resilience [1][2] Export Performance - The decline in export growth is attributed to a decrease in quantity contribution while price drag has narrowed [4] - Exports to transshipment countries and neighboring regions showed higher growth rates, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, while direct exports to the US saw a significant drop [6][8] Factors Contributing to Export Resilience - The resilience in exports is primarily driven by transshipment activities and tariff exemptions on certain goods from the US, with over 20% of Chinese goods exempted from export tariffs, particularly in semiconductors, consumer electronics, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - Despite a notable decline in direct exports to the US, exports to ASEAN and other transshipment countries have increased significantly, indicating a substantial counterbalance from transshipment activities [6] Future Export Trends - The outlook for exports suggests a potential overall decline, with expectations of reaching a low point by mid-year due to the impact of US inflation and economic slowdown [14] - Even with a downward trend in exports, the corresponding demand for imported components may also decrease, leading to a slower reduction in trade surplus and less drag on economic growth [14] Import Performance - In April, China's import growth was recorded at -0.2%, which is an increase of over 4 percentage points from March, indicating significant improvement in imports [10] - The increase in imports is attributed to improved domestic consumption and a phenomenon of "panic buying" due to retaliatory tariffs from the US [10][12] Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in April was $96.18 billion, a decrease of $6.46 billion from March, reflecting the overall trends in exports and imports [14]