【广发宏观郭磊】如何看4月出口韧性超预期

Core Viewpoint - The export growth in April 2025 reached 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations despite the impact of new tariffs from the U.S. [1][5][6] Group 1: Export Performance - April's export growth of 8.1% is higher than the 5.8% growth in the first quarter and significantly above the market expectation of 0.6% [5][6] - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 21.0% year-on-year, but this was still better than anticipated [6][7] - Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America showed strong growth rates of 20.8%, 21.7%, 25.3%, and 17.3% respectively, providing a counterbalance to the decline in U.S. exports [8][6] Group 2: Export Product Categories - Labor-intensive products such as textiles, bags, clothing, and toys saw a combined year-on-year decline of 0.8% [9] - Electronics, particularly mobile phones, were significantly affected by tariffs, with exports down 21.4% for phones and 1.7% for automatic data processing equipment [11] - Home appliances and furniture exports also declined, with year-on-year decreases of 2.9% and 7.8% respectively [12] - Automotive exports showed slight improvement, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4% in April, up from 2.2% in the first quarter [13] - Notable growth was observed in several categories: general machinery equipment exports increased by 17.0%, ship exports surged by 36.1%, and integrated circuit exports rose by 20.2% [13][11] Group 3: Competitive Advantage of Chinese Manufacturing - The April export data highlights the competitiveness and resilience of "Made in China" products [13] - China's manufacturing sector has both scale and efficiency advantages, as indicated by its global manufacturing value added share of approximately 31% in 2021, compared to the U.S. at 16% and Japan at 6% [14] - The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) index shows that China has improved its ranking from 35th in 1990 to 2nd in 2021, indicating enhanced efficiency [14] Group 4: Tariff Impact and Future Outlook - Caution is advised regarding the potential impact of tariffs, as historical data suggests that the effects may intensify in the coming months [15] - The PMI for April showed a 4.3-point decline in export orders, indicating a slowdown in demand, particularly in textiles, chemicals, and midstream equipment manufacturing [16] - The current growth dynamics suggest a need for policies to stimulate domestic demand, especially in light of the ongoing tariff pressures [17]