碳酸锂价格成本线“破防”

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price declines, with prices dropping below the previously considered cost line of 70,000 yuan per ton, leading to concerns about supply and demand dynamics in the industry [3][4][7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of May, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has fallen to 65,000 yuan per ton, with futures prices dropping to 63,000 yuan per ton, marking a historical low [3]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is primarily driven by the need for raw material replenishment, but there is a strong resistance from ternary material manufacturers against high-priced lithium salts [4][5]. - The overall production of positive electrode materials is expected to remain stable in May, indicating a lack of strong purchasing willingness from manufacturers [4]. - The energy storage sector is facing pressure due to the cancellation of mandatory storage policies in China and increased tariffs in the U.S., leading to a potential downward adjustment in the expected annual shipment volume of energy storage lithium batteries [6]. Inventory and Production Trends - Lithium carbonate inventory has increased from 108,000 tons to 132,000 tons between March and April, indicating a continued accumulation of stock [7]. - Global lithium carbonate supply is projected to reach 1.55 million tons, an 18% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from South American salt lakes and African lithium mines [7]. - Despite ongoing production cuts, the supply-demand imbalance persists, particularly affecting high-cost Australian mines, while low-cost lithium salt producers maintain strong shipping intentions [7]. Strategic Adjustments by Lithium Producers - Lithium salt companies are shifting their focus towards low-cost lithium salt sources to enhance profitability, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium aiming to control production costs below 50,000 yuan per ton [8]. - Ganfeng Lithium's Mariana lithium salt lake project is expected to begin stable supply in the second half of 2025, further improving raw material self-sufficiency and reducing production costs [8]. - Zijin Mining has completed the acquisition of Cangge Mining, which specializes in low-cost lithium extraction from salt lakes, utilizing proprietary technology to achieve a lithium recovery rate of over 95% and maintain production costs between 30,000 to 40,000 yuan per ton [9].