专题回顾 | 从北上深杭二手成交结构、房价变化看市场回稳进程

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with transaction volume increasing by 17% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in prices and market expectations [1][5][10]. Group 1: Transaction Volume and Market Trends - In Q1 2025, the total transaction area for both new and second-hand homes reached 82.04 million square meters, marking a 17% year-on-year increase, which is at the median level over the past six years [5]. - The year-on-year growth rate for second-hand homes outpaced that of new homes in most cities, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou seeing around 50% increases in second-hand transactions [6][8]. - The "recognizing house but not loan" policy has led to a 40% week-on-week increase in viewings for second-hand homes in key cities, indicating a quicker recovery in new home purchases [10]. Group 2: Listing Volume and Market Dynamics - The growth rate of new listings for second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 16% and 55% in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou saw declines of 11% and 19% [12][14]. - The proportion of listings for luxury homes priced over 10 million yuan has increased in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, while Shenzhen has seen a decline in high-end listings [15][20]. Group 3: Demand Segmentation and Price Trends - The concentration of transactions for affordable housing has decreased, while the demand for high-end and luxury properties has increased, particularly in the 140 square meters and above segment [23][27]. - Over half of the second-hand housing units in major cities have seen price increases, with more than 50% of neighborhoods in Shanghai and Hangzhou reporting rising prices [33][35]. - The bargaining space for second-hand homes in Beijing and Shanghai has narrowed over the past year, with current negotiation margins remaining below 20% in major cities [44]. Group 4: Market Confidence and Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is transitioning from a phase of "price reduction for volume" to "volume increase with stable prices," indicating a more active supply and demand dynamic [42][43]. - The recovery in market confidence is reflected in the rising prices of high-end properties, while the prices of affordable housing are stabilizing, suggesting a potential upward trend in the near future [44][45].