研客专栏 | 氧化铝：死猫反弹

Core Viewpoint - The recent investigation of a major alumina plant in Hebei, combined with the cancellation of mining licenses for Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), has led to a significant increase in alumina prices, with the main contract rebounding by 5.8% over two trading days. This rebound is attributed to both news-driven market sentiment and improvements in the supply-demand fundamentals [1][4][21]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and News Impact - A news report regarding a major downstream alumina plant has stirred market sentiment, with the plant planning to produce a total of 4.8 million tons of alumina this year across three production lines. The first line has already started output, while the second line was expected to come online soon, potentially increasing total operational capacity to 10.922 million tons. If the plant is shut down, it could alleviate short-term supply pressure [4][21]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Fundamentals - The supply-demand fundamentals for alumina are showing signs of change, with four key aspects identified: 1. The recent expansion of maintenance activities in alumina production areas, including those with cost advantages in Guangxi. 2. The operational capacity ratio of alumina to electrolytic aluminum dropped from 2.07 to 1.95 within a week, before slightly recovering to 1.98. 3. The ongoing inventory reduction since late April, with downstream electrolytic aluminum plants maintaining only essential purchases. 4. The concentration of capital in short positions has led to a reduction in short positions, contributing to the price rebound [7][8][12][15]. Group 3: Future Scenarios and Long-term Outlook - Two scenarios are considered regarding the future of the major plant's capacity: 1. If the plant continues operations, the constructed capacity ratio would be 2.42, indicating a potential oversupply situation. 2. In an extreme case where the plant's new capacity exits the market, the constructed capacity ratio would drop to 2.35, still above historical levels, suggesting that even with this exit, the supply-demand balance may not significantly improve in the short term [19][20]. - Overall, while the recent maintenance and news have led to a short-term price rebound, the long-term supply-demand surplus remains unchanged, indicating a cautious outlook until further clarity is achieved [21].