以下文章来源于国投期货研究院 ，作者庞春艳 国投期货研究院 . 国投期货研究院团队倾力打造，专注热门期货品种分析。 2. 三季度供需改善，四季度承压 纯苯进口量高依旧是供应面最大的利空，但国内炼厂检修期内，纯苯国内开工有可能出现季节性下降。三季度中后期，随着夏季汽油需求 进入尾声，芳烃回切化工将加剧纯苯的供应压力，进口有望保持在高位。国内检修重启，纯苯开工回升，进一步加剧供应压力。 三季度为下游金九银十旺季，且纯苯下游新装置投产在三季度较为集中，预期需求阶段性好转；但四季度需求有逐渐转弱的预期。 文 | 庞春艳 来源 | 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 1. 成本短期震荡，中长线偏空 作为石油下游化工品，纯苯的长期价格走势与原油保持相对较高的一致性，且原油价格对纯苯有引导作用。欧佩克+计划增产原油预期将抵 消三季度季节性消费好转的利多，油价中长线预期承压，对纯苯有成本拖累。 跨品种： 1. 锁定苯乙烯加工差：苯乙烯加工差在800元/吨以上，逢高买纯苯空苯乙烯。 2. PX-BZ：目前PX估值较好，短期因需求弱，PX估值承压，三季度中后期，PX估值依旧有可能走强，逢低多PX空纯苯。 整体 ...

摘要： 上周宏观一波三折。但主要是美国就业市场的波动在主导市场。周中 ADP新增就业人数意外下降，降息显著增加、利率下行，周后期非农 就业人数却超预期强劲，失业率下降至4.1%，市场对降息预期又立刻反转。在降息预期来回摇摆的情况下，金铜价格也缺乏明显的趋势性指 引。 核心观点 1、上周贵金属偏强震荡，铜价有所回落 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金上涨 1.8%，白银 上涨 2.68%；沪金2510合约 上涨 1 .1%，沪银2508 合约上涨 1.44%。 主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-1.16%、-0.24%。 2、宏观一波三折，铜价冲高回落 周初 FT报道贝森特关于美国关税的最新言论，其中提到有限国别关税、其次行业关税。市场理解为针对铜的232调查可能推 迟到9、10月份进行，铜价明显拉涨，随后中国方面明确提出过剩行业反内卷，工业品全线上行，对铜价带来提振。周中ADP 新增就业人数意外下降，降息显著增加、利率下行，铜价应声继续反弹，周后期非农就业人数却超预期强劲，失业率下降至 4.1%，市场对降息预期又立刻反转，铜价承压回落。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 ...

以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者紫金天风 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近日结束的中央财经委会议强调"要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后 产能有序退出"。政策信号释放后，大宗商品市场情绪明显回暖，部分投资者开始期待类似2016年供给侧 结构性改革带来的市场红利。 | 11×4/1 | HILLAR | LI THIT | 集中度 | 性质 | 装置占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PTA | -0.5% | 87.4% | 民营 | 34.2% | | | 乙醇 | -1.8% | 51% | 民营/国营 | 18.9% | | | PX | 2.1% | 72% | 民营/国营 | 30% | | | 燃料油 | 低硫5%-8% 高硫1%-3% | 60%-65% | 国营 | 40%-45% | | | 沥青 | 3%-8% | 3%-8% | 国营 | 35%-40% | | | LPG | 5.6% | 52% | ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 邵翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 昨晚的数据和市场表明，"心理建设"做得好，数据冲击变成"宝" ？ 前有 ADP数据 明显走弱，后有 WSJ 等媒体强调即使数据超预 期、就业也没有看上去那么好；而6月非农确实也十分"配合"： 有惊喜 ， 相比不足11万新增非农的预期，6月数据表现出极高的韧性 （边际上行至14.7万人），失业率超预期下降； 也卖了"破绽" ， 工时和薪资增长均不及预期。市场表现凸显了"正如预期"的自信甚 至自满，标普、纳指再创新高，美元也企稳反弹。 美元美股若想持续同涨，意味着 市场要放弃对美元资产的"前嫌"，但我们认为当前的条件远远不够成熟 。 美国经济并没有摆脱滞胀 的阴影，债务供需失衡以及美联储的独立性问题都可能成为新的波动之源。尤其是作为脆弱性集中点的美元，我们更倾向于这是继续 下跌之前的阶段性盘整。 对于美联储来说，这是一份相对"令人宽慰"的数据，就业短期风险可控，进一步锁定了美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the coal market, particularly focusing on Mongolian coal and domestic coking coal, highlighting price increases and supply adjustments due to production cuts and seasonal factors [3][5][12]. Group 1: Mongolian Coal Market - Mongolian coal prices have increased from 705 CNY/ton to 740-750 CNY/ton due to supply tightening expectations during the Naadam Festival [3]. - The recent holiday closure of three major ports in Mongolia has contributed to a temporary supply reduction [3]. Group 2: Domestic Coking Coal Production - Domestic coking coal production has seen reductions since May, driven by poor sales at state-owned mines and increased accidents at smaller mines, leading to a notable decrease in visible carbon inventory since mid-June [3][5]. - The reduction in production has started to show effects, with previously hidden inventory being consumed more effectively [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Price Movements - The recent shift in futures market sentiment has led to increased trading activity, with spot market prices for certain coal types rebounding significantly, such as Shanxi's lean coking coal price rising from 930 CNY/ton to 970 CNY/ton [7]. - The price of Australian low-sulfur coking coal has also seen a notable increase, with the index rising by 9.7% to 196.85 [9]. Group 4: Steel Production and Market Expectations - Steel prices remain stable due to the relative weakness of coke and iron ore prices, with daily pig iron production maintaining a high level of 2.42 million tons [10]. - Discussions around "anti-involution" have positively influenced market expectations for future steel profits, suggesting potential upward pressure on both steel and raw material prices [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that while there is a current upward trend in coking coal prices, caution is advised regarding overly bullish expectations, as sustained high production and inventory replenishment from downstream sectors are necessary for further price increases [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the pure benzene industry, highlighting its production processes, supply chain dynamics, and market trends, particularly focusing on the impact of downstream demand and global trade flows [3][5][17]. Summary by Sections Pure Benzene Overview - Benzene (C6H6) is a colorless, flammable liquid that serves as a fundamental petrochemical raw material, indicating the development level of a country's petrochemical industry [3][12]. Pure Benzene Industry Chain - The main downstream products of pure benzene include styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid, with styrene consumption being the largest but declining in recent years due to real estate market influences [12][16]. Production Process - Pure benzene is produced as a byproduct in various chemical processes, with its output influenced by the profitability of producing other chemicals like PX and the demand for blending oil [16]. Global Capacity and Distribution - Global pure benzene capacity has accelerated, primarily driven by China, with Northeast Asia accounting for nearly half of the total capacity [17][24]. Trade Flows - The global trade flow of pure benzene moves from major production areas to consumption regions, with China, the US, and Europe being the primary consumers [20][41]. Domestic Capacity and Production - By the end of 2024, China's pure benzene capacity is projected to reach 25.73 million tons, with significant capacity additions in 2022 and 2023, although growth is expected to slow in 2024 [24]. Seasonal Operation Rates - The operational rates of domestic pure benzene facilities exhibit seasonality, aligning with refinery maintenance schedules, particularly in spring and autumn [33]. Downstream Demand - Downstream demand for pure benzene has been increasing, especially since 2021, driven by the commissioning of styrene and other downstream facilities, although the share of styrene has been declining [35]. Import and Export Dynamics - Domestic pure benzene is primarily imported, with significant imports from South Korea and Southeast Asia, while exports remain minimal [41]. Profitability - The profitability of pure benzene production is typically assessed through the price spread between pure benzene and naphtha, with variations depending on market conditions [46]. Supply and Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance for pure benzene is influenced by various factors, including production costs and downstream demand fluctuations [50]. Futures Contracts - Futures contracts for pure benzene are traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, with specific trading units and delivery standards outlined [53][54]. Delivery Standards - The delivery standards for pure benzene include specifications for appearance, purity, and various chemical content limits, ensuring quality control in trading [54][55]. Delivery Areas and Pricing - Delivery areas for pure benzene are strategically chosen to facilitate trade, with pricing adjustments based on regional supply and demand dynamics [56].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a new phase of supply-side reform (Supply-Side Reform 2.0) in response to the government's call for orderly exit of backward production capacity, particularly targeting industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce [4][10]. Group 1: Supply-Side Reform Context - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition and improve product quality, which has raised market expectations for a new wave of supply-side reforms [4][7]. - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the supply-side reforms initiated in 2015, which led to a significant bull market in commodities like steel and cement after addressing overcapacity [7][14]. Group 2: Industry Focus - The current focus of the reform is on new industries such as new energy vehicles and e-commerce, contrasting with the previous focus on traditional sectors like steel and cement [10][12]. - The article highlights that industries with historically low profit margins, such as petrochemicals, electrical equipment, and telecommunications, may also become targets for reform if the anti-involution movement expands [12][14]. Group 3: Demand and Market Dynamics - The sustainability of demand is crucial for determining the long-term direction of industries, as seen in the past when the real estate sector supported commodity prices during the previous supply-side reforms [11][12]. - The article raises questions about whether the current reforms will be limited to downstream sectors or if they will encompass the entire supply chain, which could significantly impact demand and pricing [14][15]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article suggests that the upcoming political bureau meeting will be a critical point for assessing the government's long-term demand-side strategies and their implications for various industries [15]. - It also notes that if the reforms are too aggressive, particularly in sectors that have already undergone significant transformation, there may be a need for government intervention to correct course [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasizes the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market and promoting high-quality development of the marine economy [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The meeting highlights the need to address issues of overcapacity, low-price competition, and the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which aligns with supply-side structural reforms [4][5]. - The steel industry is identified as a key area for reform, with a focus on eliminating ineffective and inefficient production capacities, which is expected to support steel prices [10]. - The cement and glass industries are also under scrutiny due to severe regional overcapacity and intense price competition, with policies aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics and stabilizing prices [10][11]. Group 2: Specific Industries Affected - The steel industry will see impacts on rebar, hot-rolled sheets, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, as the exit of backward capacity is expected to reduce supply and support prices [10]. - The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly electrolytic aluminum, is under pressure to replace and eliminate outdated capacities, which will likely support aluminum prices [11]. - The basic chemical raw materials sector, including soda ash, PVC, methanol, and PTA, faces similar challenges of overcapacity and intense competition, with policies aimed at stabilizing prices and promoting healthy industry development [11].

以下文章来源于曾宁大宗商品研究 ，作者曾宁 曾宁大宗商品研究 . 投资是一个系统 文 | 曾宁 来源 | 曾宁大宗商品研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本文为中信期货研究所副所长曾宁在2025年中信期货年中策略会的主题发言部分核心观点摘要，本篇是2023年年中策略会发言纪要《"二 鲸落"，万物落——基于中长视角的大宗商品市场展望》的下篇。 风险提示：本文为结合历史规律及当下基本面对未来中长期市场的逻辑推演，市场短期走势影响复杂，请审慎阅读。 这是我第二次在策略会上用"鲸落"这个词，这是一个时隔两年的回旋镖，上一次是两年前的2023年年中策略会。当时我用了"二鲸落万物 落"来总结对于大宗商品市场未来几年的整体看法，当时我们认为随着地产已成明日黄花，以及随着煤炭供应进入宽松周期，大宗商品成本将 下移，大宗商品可能重现2011-2015年的走势。 我们也确实看到，过去两年，煤电系的商品指数，以及地产链的商品指数，表现是远远弱于中信期货商品指数的，这部分商品确实走出了类 似2011-2015年的市场走势，我们可能都关心这次的下跌周期什么时候结束？新的上行周期可能什么时候到来，那么我今天试图去解答一下这 两 ...

以下文章来源于国投期货研究院 ，作者吴小明 国投期货研究院 . 国投期货研究院团队倾力打造，专注热门期货品种分析。 文 | 吴小明 来源 | 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 企业1 肉鸡产业链利润分析：鸡苗价格下跌较快。6月底大型企业鸡苗价格已跌至2元/羽以下（5月底约为3元/羽左右）。孵化环节仍有微 利。屠宰环节出现小幅亏损。目前肉鸡食品深加工环节利润最高，但销量不佳。冻品销售不佳，库存压力大。山东地区冻品库存高 企，外租仓库已满（正常周转周期为7-20天）。饲料成本方面，玉米价格上涨，豆粕价格下跌。817肉鸡养殖利润不佳。 油厂动态与开机率展望：个别油厂出现胀库现象，并开始催促客户提货。预计山东地区油厂开机率到7月中旬或7月底将处于较高水 平。 豆粕用量驱动因素与展望：目前豆粕日度用量环比增加，主要源于配方调整而非饲料销量增长。预计7月豆粕日用量与6月相比保持 平稳。8月和9月若配方维持不变，用量预计将继续环比增加，增量主要来自饲料销量的增长。 豆粕添加比例现状、维持条件与替代影响：目前豆粕添加比例为：鸭料6%、肉鸡料30%、猪料8-10%（该比例于5月中下旬上 调）。短期内若无杂 ...