“抢出口”会持续吗？

Core Viewpoint - The leading indicators suggest that "export rush" may continue into May, with April exports showing a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, significantly influenced by the end of the Spring Festival distortion [2][3][11]. Export Analysis - The decline in April exports is primarily due to the fading impact of the Spring Festival distortion, with a calculated drag of 6.7 percentage points on the export growth rate [3][11]. - The strong performance in April exports is attributed to "export rush," including re-exports through emerging economies and transit through Mexico, with improvements in the data chain from production to shipping [3][19]. - Exports to ASEAN and South Korea saw significant increases, with growth rates of 21.0% and -0.1% respectively, indicating a recovery in trade relationships [3][19]. Resilience in Exports to the U.S. - Exports to the U.S. showed relative resilience, with a decline of only 20.9%, which is significantly less than the 145% tariff increase, indicating the difficulty of replacing Chinese manufacturing [4][30]. - The strong performance in intermediate and capital goods, such as ships and steel, reflects the trend of exporting production materials to emerging countries for processing and subsequent re-export to the U.S. [4][34]. Future Outlook - Leading indicators suggest that the "export rush" effect may persist into May, but uncertainties loom for June exports due to the 90-day tariff suspension on emerging economies and the one-month shipping delay [5][71]. - The processing trade imports, which are a leading indicator for export trends, showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, indicating continued export activity in May [5][71]. Regular Tracking - April exports showed a decline in consumer goods, with notable decreases in electronics and textiles, while capital goods like ships saw significant growth [6][42]. - Import growth in April was driven by a recovery in bulk commodity imports, with copper and iron ore showing increases of 22.0% and 8.0% respectively, reflecting a rebound in domestic investment demand [7][73].