11月5日，美国最高法院就特朗普IEEPA对等关税举行口头辩论，支持与不支持对等关税的大法官比例为 3:6。如果对等关税被判违法，对美国贸易政策和资本市场意味着什么？ 一、热点思考：如果"对等关税"被判违法？——美国最高法关税辩论分析 （一）对等关税可能如何判决？违法概率上升，但或延后生效 美国最高法举行关税辩论，6人支持对等关税违法，3人支持合法。 支持违法的主要理由是：1）关税权 力属于国会；2）违背清晰授权原则；3）IEEPA立法初衷是为约束总统权力，而非扩张总统权力；4）已 有专门的法律工具加征关税；5）加征关税与紧急威胁的范围和强度不匹配。 最高法判决可能有三种情形，违法+延后生效的概率较高。 情形一（高概率）：判决违法，但可能延后 生效，给政府缓冲，避免冲击公共秩序；情形二（概率中等）：部分违法，最高法可能放行芬太尼关 税；情形三（概率最低）：最高法推翻下级法院判决，承认对等关税合法性。 （二）特朗普可能如何应对？普遍退税概率低，现金发放难度大 若对等关税失效，特朗普或切换至232、301及338条款加征关税，短期内或用122条款的全球关税过渡。 美国现有9项正在调查中的232关税，覆盖进口规模5 ...

摘要 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国政府结束关门，ADP就业强于预期 全球股指多数下跌，黄金震荡企稳。 当周，标普500下跌1.6%，纳斯达克指数下跌3.0%；10Y美债收益率 持平于4.11%；美元指数下跌0.2%至99.55，离岸人民币降至7.1252；WTI原油下跌2.0%至59.8美元/桶， COMEX黄金持平于3995.2美元/盎司。 美国两党达成协议，美国政府结束关门。 11月9日，美国参议院民主党议员与共和党领导人及白宫达成 协议，以未来延长《平价医疗法案》补贴为条件，推动政府重启。此次政府关门，67万联邦雇员被强制 停薪休假，正常上班发薪的人数为152万人，占联邦文职雇员总人数的52%。 美国10月ADP就业强于市场预期，10月ISM制造业PMI回落。 美国10月ADP新增就业4.2万人，市场预期 3万人，缓解了市场对美国经济走弱的担忧，对应美国10月ISM服务业PMI上升至52.4；过去一个月，美 国高频职位空缺数、红皮书零售指数下滑。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国政府结束关门，ADP就业强于预期 （一）大类资产 ...

中国财富管理50人论坛 赵伟：中国宏观形势分析与展望 原创 阅读全文 ...

报告正文 事件：11月11日，央行发布2025年三季度货币政策执行报告（以下简称《报告》）。 经济形势分析：外部不稳定不确定性因素较多，要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭 联系人|贾东旭 外部形势判断方面，《报告》进一步强调"外部不稳定不确定性因素较多"的特征，并新增"国际经济贸易秩序遇到严峻挑战"的表述。 该表述反映出央行对三季 度以来国际环境复杂性的担忧加深。相较于二季度报告中仅将世界经济增长动能描述为"减弱"，三季度报告将其调整为"不足"，语气更为审慎，显示出对全球经济 增长前景的忧虑进一步加重。 在国内经济形势评估方面，《报告》仍指出"我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战"，但新增"国内经济回升向好基础仍需加力巩固"的表述，进一步突显政策层 面对巩固经济复苏态势的重视。 结合三季度以来部分经济指标增速较上半年有所放缓的情况，报告提出"要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心"，既表明对当前经济的清 醒认知，也传递出完成全年经济增长目标的决心。 政策基调：实施好适度宽松的货币政策，综合运用多种工具，保持社会融资条件相对宽松。 货币政策基调方面，表述由二季度的"落实落细适度宽松的货币政策"转变为"实施好适 ...

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, compared to -0.3% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year [1][9] Factors Influencing Inflation - **Factor One**: The anti-involution effect has led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI is limited. In contrast, copper prices, which are less affected by anti-involution, saw a larger increase, contributing significantly to the PPI [2][10][60] - **Factor Two**: The CPI's rise above zero is attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, with pork prices remaining low despite the anti-involution impact [2][17][61] - **Factor Three**: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. The core service CPI showed better performance than seasonal trends due to holiday travel [3][24][30][62] Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the anti-involution effect on downstream prices may take time to manifest. The PPI is projected to remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [4][37][62] Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items. The food CPI rose by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year, while non-food items like household appliances and communication tools saw a decline [5][40][63] - The overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal expectations. However, rental prices remained weak compared to previous years [7][52][63]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 11 . 1 - 11 . 7 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 美国信贷市场，风险几何？ 2、 热点思考 | 短期经济会否"超预期"？ 高频跟踪 1、海外高频 | 中美达成贸易协议，黄金连续两周回调 2、国内高频 | 港口货运量大幅上行 3、数据点评 | 出口骤降的"隐藏线索"？ 电话会议 1、"周见系列" 第55期: 《关税"变局"?》 2、"洞见系列" 第101期: 《美国信货市场，风险几何?》 3、"速见系列" 第11期: 《为何10月出口大幅下行?》 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 美国信贷市场，风险几何？ 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.11.2 区域性银行风波会否延续、美国信贷市场还有哪些暗藏的风险？ | 类别 | 单位(%) | | 经济月度数据 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年8月 | 2025年9月 | 2025年10月(预测 | | | 实际GDP | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件：11月7日，海关总署公布10月进出口数据，出口（以美元计价）同比-1.1%、预期3.2%、前值8.3%；进口（以美元计价）同比1%、预期4.1%、前值 7.4%。 核心观点：10月出口回落或非外需走弱，更多是短期供给扰动，目前供给扰动已在消退。 10月出口同比大幅回落，主因或并非外需走弱。 10月出口回落一定程度上受到基数走高的影响，但环比（-7.1%）仍明显弱于季节性（-3.2%）；从国别看， 对东盟（-4.7pct至11%）、对非洲（-46.1pct至10.5%）等新兴经济体出口增速回落，而越南、泰国、南非、巴西等地PMI年中以来持续改善，新兴经济体需求 并未明显走弱；对美出口也在改善。 短期供给扰动才是拖累出口主因，或与前期"抢生产"结束以及工作日天数减少有关。 10月工作日同比较前月减少3天，考虑到国庆节后一周休假情况也居 多，进一步放大了工作日减少对供给的拖累；9月受长假的影响，制造业"抢生产"现象明显，但10月对应退坡。10月出口回落的基本上都是9月走强的商品； 消费电子、轻工制品等劳动密集型行业出口跌幅也更大；高频出口链生产同比下滑至-0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of industrial production, construction, and demand trends in China, highlighting a mixed performance across various sectors, with some showing signs of recovery while others remain weak. Industrial Production Tracking - The operating rate of blast furnaces has significantly declined, with a week-on-week decrease of 3% to 81.7%, and a year-on-year drop of 3.3 percentage points [2][6] - Steel apparent consumption has increased by 2.7% week-on-week and returned to positive territory year-on-year, up 2.9 percentage points to 2.8% [2][8] - Social inventory continues to decline, down 2.1% week-on-week [2] Construction Industry Insights - Cement production and demand have shown slight improvement but remain weaker than the same period last year, with a grinding operating rate up 1% to 46.3% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points [24][25] - Cement shipment rates increased by 0.8% week-on-week but are down 8.8% year-on-year [24][28] - The cement inventory ratio continues to rise, up 2.3% week-on-week [24][31] Demand Tracking - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with a week-on-week drop of 11.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.3 percentage points to -25% [47][48] - The average daily transaction area in 30 major cities has seen significant declines, particularly in first-tier cities, which experienced a year-on-year drop of 20.1 percentage points [47][51] - Port cargo throughput has rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [57][64] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing mixed performance, with vegetable prices rising by 8.1% week-on-week, while pork and egg prices have decreased by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively [99][100] - The overall industrial product prices are on the rise, with the South China Industrial Product Price Index increasing by 1.8% week-on-week [111][112]

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 | 类别 | 单位 (%) | | 经济月度数据 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年8月 | 2025年9月 | 2025年10月(预测 | | | SHIFGDP | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | | | ■业增加值 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 5.5 | | | 固定资产投资 | 0.5 | -0.5 | -1.0 | | | 基建投资(全口径) | 5.4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | | | 制造业投资 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 3.4 | | | 房地产投资 | -12.9 | -13.9 | -14.4 | | | 服务业投资 | 0.8 | -0.2 | -0.9 | | | 社会消费品零售 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | | | нно | 4.3 | 8.3 | 7.0 | | | CPI | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 | | | PPI | -2.9 | -2.3 | -2.1 | 注：投资相关指标为累计增速，其余指标为当月增速 摘要 一问：10月以来，经济活动有 ...

Group 1 - The recent loan fraud cases disclosed by two regional banks in the U.S. have raised concerns about the credit market, but the immediate market reaction has not persisted [2][6][84] - On October 16, Zion Bank reported a loss of $50 million due to loan fraud, while Western Alliance Bank disclosed a similar case, leading to a 6.7% drop in the regional bank index and a 3.1% rise in gold prices [2][6][84] - The current situation is not directly comparable to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, as the involved banks are smaller, and the issues appear to be isolated incidents rather than systemic risks [2][16][22] Group 2 - Concerns about private credit markets have emerged, with the potential for "cockroach effects" as credit quality deteriorates and loan conditions tighten [3][32][85] - The default rate for private credit remains low, around 1.8% as of mid-2025, and the risk of contagion is considered manageable due to the nature of private loans [3][40][44] - However, signs of stress are evident, particularly with an increase in non-stressed PIK loans, indicating worsening cash flows among borrowers [3][44][85] Group 3 - Commercial real estate and consumer credit risks are significant concerns, with the CMBS delinquency rate reaching a historical high of 11.8% in August 2025 [4][53][86] - The office vacancy rate in the U.S. hit a record high of 18.4% by mid-2025, exacerbating the challenges in the commercial real estate sector [4][53][86] - Consumer credit risks are also rising, particularly among low-income groups, with delinquency rates for auto loans and credit cards reaching near historical highs [4][61][86]