张瑜：美国经济的上行or下行风险有哪些？——美国一季度GDP点评

Core Viewpoint - The future downward and upward pressures on the U.S. economy's internal demand are identified, with downward pressures stemming from tariffs, wealth effect deterioration, and potential financial market contagion, while upward pressures are linked to private investment and Fed rate cuts [2][12]. Group 1: Tariffs as a Downward Uncertainty Source - Tariffs are the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturns, significantly impacting U.S. import demand and consequently global trade [4][14]. - The U.S. accounts for 16% of global imports (excluding intra-EU trade) and approximately one-third of global final consumption goods imports, indicating its critical role in global trade dynamics [4][14]. - A negative growth of over 5% in U.S. import growth could exert substantial pressure on the global economy, necessitating close monitoring of the impact of tariffs on U.S. imports [4][19]. Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect of U.S. residents is highly sensitive to stock market performance, with a potential decline in consumer spending resilience if the stock market continues to fall [6][26]. - A 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq index in Q1 2024 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%, with further declines potentially exacerbating this effect [6][26]. - The outlook for disposable cash flow is bleak, with a projected 4.5% year-on-year increase in wage income for 2025, slightly below 2024's 4.8% [7][30]. Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market is currently facing multiple risks, including liquidity issues and high leverage, which could amplify market volatility and impact the economic fundamentals [8][36]. - Political uncertainties, such as tariffs, may further exacerbate financial market fluctuations, posing additional risks to economic growth [8][36]. Group 4: Private Investment as an Upward Risk - Following the Fed's rate cuts, real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years, typically leading economic recovery [9][40]. - Major U.S. tech companies are increasing their capital expenditures, with a 19% upward revision in 2025 capital spending expectations compared to earlier forecasts [9][46].