半导体行业观察·2025-05-10 02:53Core Viewpoint - Europe faces a difficult choice between fighting for "sovereignty," aligning with China, or cooperating with Washington regarding semiconductor tariffs and policies [2][4]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The Trump administration is preparing to impose extensive tariffs on semiconductors, potentially affecting not only China but also foreign-made components within devices [2]. - European semiconductor exports to the U.S. are unlikely to be significantly impacted, as Europe accounts for only 8% of global chip production, primarily serving the automotive sector [2]. - The leading Dutch lithography equipment manufacturer ASML may face order slowdowns due to uncertainties from the trade war, despite plans to pass most tariff costs onto U.S. customers [2][3]. Group 2: European Semiconductor Strategy - The European semiconductor industry is urged to quadruple its investment, with SEMI recommending a dedicated budget of €20 billion to stimulate the sector [5][6]. - The EU's current semiconductor market share is 9.8%, projected to rise to only 11.7% by 2030, falling short of the 20% target set by the EU [6]. - The EU's semiconductor fund of €43 billion has limited control, with only €4.5 billion managed by the European Commission, highlighting a reliance on member states and private sectors for funding [6]. Group 3: Opportunities and Risks - The anticipated tariffs may lead to an oversupply and price drops in Asian semiconductor production, presenting an opportunity for Europe to invest in local production [3]. - Europe should leverage its strengths in chip design and low-power chips to fill gaps left by U.S. isolation from global supply chains [3][4]. - The potential for increased tariffs on U.S. tech products could serve as a revenue-generating measure for Europe, especially targeting companies like Facebook and Google [4].