如何看待我国4月出口韧性超预期？｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, China's exports grew by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding the 5.8% growth in the first quarter, despite the impact of new U.S. tariffs implemented on April 2 [2][6] Export Performance Analysis - The resilience in exports can be attributed to a 21.0% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S., which, while significant, was better than expected. Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America saw year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, 21.7%, 25.3%, and 17.3%, respectively, effectively offsetting the decline [2][8][10] - Major export categories showed mixed results, with labor-intensive products like textiles, bags, clothing, and toys experiencing a combined year-on-year decline of 0.8%. Electronics, particularly mobile phones, were significantly affected by tariffs, with year-on-year declines of 21.4% for phones and 1.7% for automatic data processing equipment. Home appliances and furniture also saw low growth rates of -2.9% and -7.8%, respectively. However, automotive exports increased slightly by 4.4%, surpassing the first quarter's 2.2% [2][12][15][16] Competitive Advantage of Chinese Manufacturing - April's export data highlighted the competitiveness and resilience of "Made in China" products. China's manufacturing sector has both scale and efficiency advantages, as evidenced by its global manufacturing value added share of approximately 31% in 2021, compared to the U.S. at 16% and Japan at 6%. The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) index shows China ranked second globally in 2021, up from 35th in 1990 [3][17] Caution on Tariff Impact - There is a need for vigilance regarding the impact of tariffs, as the effects may become more pronounced in the coming months. Historical data from 2018 indicates that significant tariff implementations led to delayed impacts on export growth, with a notable decline occurring several months after tariffs were enacted. The April PMI data showed a 4.3-point month-on-month decline in export orders, particularly in textiles, chemicals, and midstream equipment manufacturing, indicating a potential lag in the transmission from orders to delivery [3][18][19] Economic Growth Dynamics - The relationship between growth momentum and stabilization efforts is likened to a seesaw, with current economic conditions suggesting a continued focus on counter-cyclical policies. Despite a strong actual growth rate in the first quarter, nominal growth remains low, with tax revenue and profits from large enterprises showing declines. The government is expected to leverage recent policy measures to stimulate domestic demand and address the ongoing pressures from tariffs [4][20]