张瑜：莫听穿林空雷声，持伞干湿看雨情——华创证券中期策略会演讲实录

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic conditions in both the US and China, rather than reacting to the fluctuating news about tariffs. Investors should focus on the core economic fundamentals to navigate uncertainties effectively [2][4]. Group 1: US Economic Analysis - The core issue in the US economy is whether excess wealth can absorb the inflation caused by future tariffs. If it can, profits will remain stable; if not, stagflation may occur [6][14]. - The risk premium in the US is at a historical high, which could easily trigger a liquidity crisis if it breaks [14]. - The US faces a significant challenge with a peak in corporate debt, particularly in the junk bond sector, which could be severely impacted by inflation and tariffs [10][11]. Group 2: Chinese Economic Analysis - The key question for China is whether the release of household savings can continue and whether tariffs will disrupt this recovery [15][21]. - Recent monetary policies, such as interest rate cuts, aim to prevent disruptions from tariffs and support economic recovery [19]. - The proportion of precautionary savings among Chinese households has decreased from 26% in 2022 to an expected 19% in 2024, indicating a gradual return to normal spending behavior [19][20]. Group 3: Economic Interaction Models - Three interactive models are proposed to understand the Chinese economy: what economic changes trigger policy responses, what changes yield the best profit visibility for A-shares, and what changes affect consumption upgrades and downgrades [22][30]. - Historical data shows that significant policy changes often occur when uncontrollable economic factors (red line) decline, prompting government intervention [25][26]. Group 4: Tariff Implications - The article discusses the short-term unpredictability of tariffs and emphasizes the importance of understanding the mid-term logic behind them, distinguishing between primary risks (β) and relative risks (α) [38]. - The US's role in global demand is significant, with it accounting for about 16% of total global imports and 1/3 of global final consumer goods imports [38]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The best investment strategy in the current environment is to "respond to uncertainty with certainty," as articulated in the April Politburo meeting [39]. - China's financial market is expected to provide more certainty than the US market in the coming months, with lower volatility anticipated due to clearer challenges and policy responses [40][41]. - The focus should be on high-dividend stocks and technology investments, which are seen as stable opportunities amid the current economic landscape [41].