市场真的有效吗？芒格教你如何从市场无效中寻找机会

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Charlie Munger's perspective on market efficiency, highlighting the contrast between theoretical market efficiency and real-world examples of market inefficiencies, particularly in the context of investment strategies and behaviors of investors [2][4][12]. Summary by Sections Effective Market Hypothesis - The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggests that all known information is reflected in stock prices, making it impossible for investors to consistently outperform the market [4]. - Eugene Fama's work in 1965 introduced the concept of stock prices following a random walk, asserting that current prices represent fair value [4]. Buffett as an Exception - Warren Buffett is presented as a notable exception to the EMH, having consistently outperformed the market, which has led to skepticism from academic circles [5][6]. - Critics, including notable economists, have questioned Buffett's success, attributing it to luck rather than skill [6]. Buffett's Counterargument - Buffett countered the academic criticism by showcasing the historical performance of nine successful investors, including himself and Munger, arguing that their success stemmed from hard work and adherence to value investing principles [8][10]. Market Inefficiencies - Munger identifies two types of market inefficiencies: those arising from small market sizes with limited attention and those driven by investor psychology, particularly during periods of fear and greed [12]. - A specific example of market inefficiency is the premium on ETFs, where investors may buy at inflated prices due to lack of understanding of the underlying mechanics [14]. Opportunities in Inefficient Markets - The article emphasizes that while efficient markets are an ideal, real-world inefficiencies create opportunities for experienced investors to buy undervalued assets and sell overvalued ones [16].