4月通胀：关税冲击背后的积极表现

Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs on PPI is significant, while improved consumer demand provides substantial support for core CPI [2][3][45] - International oil prices have declined, and weak demand for steel and coal has led to a drop in commodity prices, negatively affecting PPI [2][45] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated demand for core goods, resulting in a limited impact of tariffs on core CPI [3][46] Inflation Data Summary - In April, CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, remaining flat compared to the previous month, while PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year [1][8][44] - The decline in PPI is attributed to falling international oil prices and weak demand in the real estate sector, with PPI dropping 0.4% month-on-month [2][8][45] - Core CPI showed a minor decline of 0.1 percentage points to 0.1%, indicating resilience in consumer demand despite tariff impacts [3][46] Food and Service CPI Analysis - Food CPI improved significantly, rising 1.2 percentage points to -0.2% year-on-year, driven by reduced supply of fresh vegetables and fruits [3][18][32] - Core service CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, supported by a rebound in travel demand, with notable price increases in airfares and transportation rentals [4][23][47] - The overall service CPI remained stable compared to the previous month, reflecting seasonal trends [4][48] Future Outlook - The impact of tariffs on PPI is expected to be greater than on CPI, with potential downward pressure on both indices in the second quarter [4][25][47] - The central government's emphasis on stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand may provide support for inflation recovery [4][25][48] - PPI is projected to decline by 2.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, while CPI may also face downward risks [4][25][47]