中美经贸会谈，揭示了东南亚发展的第三种可能性

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving trade dynamics in Southeast Asia amid the intensifying geopolitical competition between the US and China, highlighting the region's strategic importance and the implications for its economic development [3][4][5]. Group 1: Southeast Asia's Economic Growth - Southeast Asia has emerged as a significant player in the global economy, with ASEAN being the fifth-largest economy by purchasing power parity (PPP), increasing its share of the global economy from 5.0% in 2001 to 6.4% in 2023 [4][5]. - The region's economic growth has outpaced the global average, with Southeast Asian countries averaging a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the global average of 3.0% since the 21st century [4][5]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Patterns - ASEAN's share of global goods exports has risen from 6.2% in 2001 to 7.6% in 2023, indicating its growing importance in international trade [5]. - The article notes a shift in trade patterns, with Southeast Asian countries participating in both the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) [5][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The US is actively supporting economically viable Southeast Asian nations to replace China's role in the regional production chain, reflecting a strategic shift in the geopolitical landscape [4][30]. - The article emphasizes that the geopolitical competition between the US and China is reshaping Southeast Asia's trade relationships, with countries like Vietnam benefiting from the ongoing tensions [25][29]. Group 4: Vietnam's Strategic Position - Vietnam has rapidly integrated into the regional production network since joining the WTO in 2007, with its exports increasingly comprising foreign value added, reaching over 48% in 2022 [18][20]. - The US has committed to assisting Vietnam in developing its semiconductor and rare earth industries, which are critical areas in the US-China competition [25][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that Southeast Asia is entering a new phase of trade dynamics, necessitating a new theoretical framework to understand the evolving economic relationships in the context of great power competition [28][29]. - Despite the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions, Southeast Asia's internal market development remains crucial, with China maintaining a significant role in the region's economic landscape [30][31].