ARM：指引预警 “泼冷水”，估值泡沫要戳破？

Core Viewpoint - ARM's Q4 FY2025 financial report shows strong revenue and gross margin growth, primarily driven by increases in licensing and royalty businesses, despite a decline in net profit due to one-time equity investment losses [1][4]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 FY2025 reached $1.24 billion, a year-over-year increase of 33.7%, aligning with market expectations [1][3]. - Gross profit for the quarter was $1.21 billion, with a gross margin of 97.7%, reflecting a slight increase from previous quarters [3][4]. - Net profit was $210 million, down 6.3% year-over-year, impacted by one-time losses from equity investments [1][3]. Business Segments - Licensing revenue amounted to $634 million, up 53.1% year-over-year, with an Annual Contract Value (ACV) of $1.36 billion, a 15% increase [2][3]. - Royalty revenue reached $607 million, growing 18.1% year-over-year, driven by the adoption of the Armv9 architecture and increased usage of Arm-based chips in data centers [2][3]. Future Guidance - For Q1 FY2026, ARM expects revenue between $1.0 billion and $1.1 billion, with adjusted earnings per share projected between $0.30 and $0.38, both below market expectations [2][4]. - The royalty business is anticipated to grow by 25-30% year-over-year, while licensing growth may face pressure due to high comparatives from the previous year [4]. Market Valuation - ARM's current market capitalization stands at $130.9 billion, with projections for FY2026 operating profit suggesting a price-to-earnings ratio that reflects a revenue growth assumption of 16.2% and a slight increase in gross margin [5].