深度 | 关税对就业，影响有多大？——就业问策系列之一【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The total employment driven by exports in China is estimated to be around 120 million people, with exports contributing more significantly to the economy than to employment [1][4][9] - The additional tariffs imposed by the US on China are expected to reduce employment by approximately 0.9% to 1.4%, translating to a potential loss of between 6.684 million and 9.957 million jobs [1][9][12] - Industries most affected by the tariffs include leather and footwear, wood furniture, and textiles, which have high exposure to US revenue and low labor productivity [1][12][13] Group 2: Changes in Employment Environment - The overall employment absorption capacity in China is declining, with GDP growth slowing down leading to an increase in unemployment rates [2][15][18] - The shift from an external to an internal economic cycle is causing a reduction in employment opportunities, particularly in the primary and secondary industries, while the tertiary sector's growth remains slow [2][17][20] - The mismatch between supply and demand in the labor market is exacerbated by factors such as generational wealth transfer, educational mismatches, and a growing preference for stable jobs [2][34][36][37] Group 3: Policies to Stabilize Employment - Continued economic development is essential to create new job opportunities, particularly in the tertiary sector, which has significant potential for employment growth [3][44][46] - Reforming vocational and professional education systems is necessary to align educational outcomes with labor market needs and improve the quality of the workforce [3][48][50] - Enhancing information flow regarding job vacancies, especially in technical fields, is crucial to better match job seekers with available positions [3][50][53]