热点思考 | 贸易冲突的“终局”？——关税“压力测试”系列之七

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent US-UK trade agreement, termed the "Economic Prosperity Agreement," reflects a shift in US trade negotiation strategies, prioritizing political gains and maintaining tariffs as a central goal [2][17][59] - The agreement allows the US to retain a 10% baseline tariff on UK goods while reducing tariffs on automobiles and steel/aluminum imports from the UK [2][59] - The UK has agreed to expand agricultural imports from the US, including a quota for 1.3 million tons of beef and a commitment to purchase $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [2][59] Group 2 - The US is currently engaged in trade negotiations with approximately 17 economies, including India, Japan, and Vietnam, with a focus on achieving quick agreements with smaller economies to bolster political support for the Trump administration [4][61] - Key conflicts in negotiations with the EU center around digital services taxes and automotive import barriers, with the EU maintaining a significant trade surplus with the US [4][26][61] - The US-Japan negotiations face challenges primarily in the automotive and agricultural sectors, with the US seeking to increase military funding contributions from Japan while also pushing for reduced tariffs on US agricultural products [4][32][61] Group 3 - Future trade conflicts may evolve through a strategy of splitting issues and pursuing partial agreements, particularly with smaller economies that have lower trade imbalance levels with the US [5][39][62] - The likelihood of reaching comprehensive agreements with major economies in the short term is low, suggesting a phased approach to negotiations may be more realistic [5][62] - Historical precedents indicate that US trade conflicts often end in political backlash or through WTO rulings, highlighting the complexities of achieving lasting trade agreements [5][51][62]