中金：促进房地产市场止跌回稳的政策再思考

Core Viewpoint - The framework of China's real estate policy has undergone significant changes since 2022, and it will continue to dynamically respond to market changes and challenges. Despite the richness of policy tools, the need to stabilize the market remains crucial due to external economic uncertainties and internal industry pressures [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Policy Framework - The precondition for stabilizing the market is to promote asset liquidity and restore industry fluidity. The current adjustment process in China's real estate market is characterized by declining sales and rising inventory, with a significant challenge being insufficient market liquidity [3]. - The existing policy framework has focused more on demand-side measures, with recent policies including the relaxation of local restrictions and reductions in mortgage rates and down payment ratios. However, there is a need to enhance supply-side policies to create a more balanced policy framework [4][9]. - The market has shown signs of recovery, with overall transaction volumes improving since Q4 2024, although recent external fluctuations have impacted resident expectations [8]. Group 2: Recommendations for Policy Improvement - It is suggested to further refine supply-side policies to achieve a more balanced approach between supply and demand. This includes enhancing asset revitalization efforts and guiding orderly corporate restructuring, which is crucial for stabilizing risks and supporting future capacity recovery [11]. - Innovative liquidity supply mechanisms should be explored, including the development of a distressed asset disposal ecosystem and the promotion of a multi-tiered REITs market to support asset revitalization [5][12]. - Establishing a trading mechanism for land use rights between regions could address the "human-land mismatch" issue in China's real estate market, promoting a more effective balance of supply and demand [17]. Group 3: Future Market Indicators - Key indicators to monitor for market stabilization include corporate financing trends, improvements in asset-liability structures, and the de-inventory cycle. A clear path for de-leveraging and inventory reduction is expected to emerge by 2025 [18][19]. - The recovery of asset prices is anticipated as a natural outcome of improved market conditions, including liquidity restoration and enhanced market confidence [20]. Group 4: Industry Development Trends - The real estate industry is expected to see a shift towards lighter asset models, with some companies transitioning to asset management services as the housing development business contracts [21]. - There is a growing consensus on the importance of asset management across all types of companies, reflecting a global trend towards balancing stock management and new construction [21]. - The future of the industry will likely involve deeper specialization and differentiation, necessitating regulatory adaptations to accommodate diverse business scenarios and foster innovative business models [22].