“申”度解盘 | 五月：不悲不喜、轮动修复

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the market, highlighting that the most pessimistic expectations regarding tariffs have likely been priced in, and there are signs of potential recovery in the stock market following recent tariff announcements [4][10][12]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of April 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,279.03 points, down 1.7% from March, while the CSI 300 Index fell 3% to 3,770.57 points [7][9]. - The average daily trading volume in April was 5,153 billion yuan for the Shanghai market, a decrease of 13.5% compared to March [9]. - The highest and lowest points for the Shanghai Composite Index in April were 3,361.13 and 3,040.69, respectively, indicating a volatile month [7][9]. Group 2: Economic Data and Policy Expectations - The overall economy remains in a dormant state, with the total revenue growth for the A-share market continuing to show negative growth, although the decline is narrowing [5][15]. - In March 2025, broad fiscal revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 10.1%, indicating a potential for policy support to mitigate external demand risks [17]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risk Premium - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index reached 7.03 at the end of April, exceeding the historical average by more than one standard deviation, suggesting a period of panic selling followed by gradual recovery [6][19]. - The number of stocks with a price increase of over 20% in April was 151, a decrease of 30% from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the market's profit-making effect, although it has not yet reached historical lows [20]. Group 4: Future Market Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern, oscillating between established support and resistance levels [21]. - The CSI 300 Index has shown signs of recovery after a sharp decline, but faces significant resistance at the 60-day moving average [24].