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未来十年,中国零售渠道会有哪些变化?
虎嗅APP·2025-05-12 10:51

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese retail industry, particularly in the food and beverage sector, is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from a growth-driven market to a stock-driven market, leading to a restructuring of the value chain and a shift in power dynamics from brands to retailers [3][4][5][10]. Group 1: Market Transformation - The traditional supermarket model, which thrived for three decades, is nearing its end, with many leading supermarkets exiting the market in recent years [3][9]. - The future landscape may see over 2,000 super-large stores, 30,000 large stores, 200,000 medium stores, and 3 million small stores in China [4][19]. - The shift from an incremental market to a stock market is driven by urbanization, manufacturing benefits, and the proliferation of mobile internet, while demand is affected by slowing GDP growth and consumer segmentation [4][10]. Group 2: Value Chain Restructuring - The previous model dominated by brands, characterized by "big brands + big products + deep distribution," is becoming ineffective, with channel power shifting towards the end consumer [5][11]. - The current market environment features an oversupply situation, where the focus is on understanding and meeting consumer needs rather than merely distributing products [12][15]. - The emergence of "buyer solutions" is evident in successful companies like Qian Dama and Hema, which adapt to consumer demands more effectively [16][19]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The concept of "buyer solutions" is gaining traction, as seen in the evolution of retail strategies in Japan and the U.S., where retailers focus on specific product categories to meet consumer needs [18][19]. - The Chinese market currently has 6 million stores, with a significant number being non-chain establishments, indicating a long way to go in the chain retail evolution [18]. - The relationship between brands and retailers is shifting from a competitive to a collaborative model, emphasizing long-term partnerships and mutual understanding [25][36]. Group 4: Category Management and Innovation - The transition to a stock market necessitates a focus on category management, where retailers and brands collaborate to optimize product offerings based on consumer insights [20][23]. - The blending of categories and the emergence of new retail formats are expected to drive innovation, as seen in the integration of coffee and tea offerings in convenience stores [32][33]. - The market is witnessing a trend towards niche markets, where new products are likely to start small before potentially becoming major hits [36].