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Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Jerome Powell, faces a challenging "lose-lose" situation due to the dual mandate of full employment and low inflation, compounded by the tariff policies of the Trump administration [1][5][6]. Policy Dilemma - The tariff policies exert downward pressure on economic growth while posing upward risks to inflation, severely constraining the Federal Reserve's policy options [5][6]. - Dan North emphasizes that Powell's best course of action is to do nothing, as any decision made now could be wrong due to the high uncertainty in the current policy environment [6]. Historical Context - Historical precedents show that Federal Reserve leaders have often been criticized for their hesitance in adjusting interest rates, leading to missed opportunities to act before economic downturns [3][9]. - The tendency to wait for overwhelming data before taking action has been a consistent pattern, resulting in delayed responses to economic shifts [3][11]. Labor Market Signals - The labor market is often the last to signal an impending recession, which suggests that the Federal Reserve's reliance on labor market indicators may lead to delayed policy adjustments [11]. - Powell's previous reluctance to raise interest rates in response to rising inflation in 2021 exemplifies the risks of acting too late, as the Fed is still struggling to bring inflation back to the 2% target [11].