股价腰斩、财报暴雷，聪明钱为何押对特斯拉的30%反弹？

Core Viewpoint - Despite Tesla's Q1 revenue declining by 9% year-on-year and earnings per share falling short of expectations by 40%, the stock price rebounded by 30% in two weeks, indicating that the market has already priced in pessimistic expectations and is now focusing on new growth areas such as autonomous driving and robotics, reflecting investor confidence in long-term technological dividends [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Tesla's Q1 financial report showed a revenue of $19.34 billion, down 9% year-on-year, and total automotive revenue of $14 billion, down 20% [9]. - Adjusted earnings were $0.27, a 40% decline compared to the previous year, significantly below the expected $0.39 [9]. - Operating profit was $399 million, down 66%, with an operating margin of 2.1%, a decrease of 343 basis points [9]. Autonomous Driving Developments - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) is achieving daily road testing of 10 million miles, which is 50 times more than Waymo, providing a vast amount of real-world data to drive AI iterations [2][15]. - The upcoming Cybercab pilot in Austin, set for June, will test a pure vision solution, with a vehicle cost of $30,000, potentially disrupting the trillion-dollar mobility market [2][15][19]. - The U.S. Department of Transportation has provided regulatory support for autonomous driving, which may facilitate the development of RoboTaxi services [6][11]. Strategic Shifts and Future Outlook - The RockFlow research team believes that Tesla's darkest days may be over, with the mass production of Optimus and the commercialization of FSD presenting dual opportunities [2][7]. - By 2026, Tesla could reach a critical point for scaling autonomous driving, supported by its data and vertical integration competitive barriers [2][21]. - The potential market for autonomous driving is enormous, with estimates suggesting a multi-trillion-dollar economic redistribution due to the shift towards automation in transportation [19][21]. Conclusion - The transition to widespread autonomous driving may appear gradual, but a significant breakthrough is anticipated, similar to the advent of the internet or smartphones [20]. - If the Austin pilot is successful, Tesla could expand its autonomous fleet to multiple cities by 2026, leveraging its vast data and competitive advantages to maintain a leading position in the market [21].